Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 124 5 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
A useful method of moments in probability states that if real random variables have all moments, for every integer , and is the moment sequence of a moment-determinate probability distribution, then converges to that distribution in the sense of convergence in distribution. In particular, convergence to the standard normal distribution follows from limiting odd moments zero and limiting even moments . The moment-generating function of a standard normal variable, finite in a neighbourhood of zero, ensures moment determinacy.
For the classical Erdős-Kac theorem, put and choose, for example, , with a harmless modification for small . Truncate the prime omega function to primes . The omitted number of distinct prime factors of any is at most , since a product of omitted primes exceeds . Thus this truncation changes the normalized variable by uniformly. Also, the Mertens theorem for reciprocal primes gives
Part (b) transfers every fixed normalized central moment of the truncated prime omega function to the independent Bernoulli random variables model. Indeed, its unnormalized error is at most , using , and this tends to zero for each fixed . In the independent expansion, any singleton index has zero expectation; the leading contributions are pairings, giving exactly the standard normal distribution moments, while blocks of size at least three are negligible after normalization. The method of moments in probability, followed by the uniformly negligible truncation and centering errors, proves the Erdős-Kac theorem.
The same strategy proves the bounded-prime-weight form in part (a). Choose slowly enough that . The omitted weighted contribution is ; its mean is likewise , and its independent variance is by the Mertens theorem for reciprocal primes. Hence the truncated model has the same normalization, and part (b) again transfers each fixed central moment.
Rare-outlier three-point distribution 2026-10-14
For , put probability mass at zero and at each of and . This symmetric probability distribution has mean zero. Its second and fourth moments are both , because the nonzero outcomes have square and fourth power equal to one:For the kurtosis is ; for it is . In the latter case of the probability mass is at zero, yet all of the fourth central moment comes from the remaining . The standard score takes values and , with variance one. Each nonzero outcome contributesto kurtosis. At , the two rare outcomes are ten standard deviations from the mean, and their contributions are .
Every member has finite support of a probability distribution, so all its moments are finite. Nevertheless, kurtosis becomes arbitrarily large as approaches zero: high kurtosis does not require an unbounded support of a probability distribution or a heavy-tailed distribution. At the variance vanishes and kurtosis is undefined. At this discrete probability distribution even has the normal distribution value and excess kurtosis zero, so those values do not establish a normal distribution.
Write , , and . Apply the Poisson size-bias identity with , and expand using the binomial theorem and independence. A finite th severity moment suffices. In particular, the aggregate expected value, variance, and third central moment are , , and , respectively; the latter two use raw severity moments.
