Let be the cumulative claim amount and the surplus in the classical risk model. The supplied adjustment coefficient satisfies . The Compound Poisson process has independent increments, and the random-sum transform identity gives
It follows that is a nonnegative martingale with : conditional on the past, the multiplicative increment has expected value one. This is the exponential surplus martingale.
Let be the ruin stopping time. Surplus decreases only at claim arrivals, so on the deficit at ruin gives and . The optional stopping theorem at the bounded stopping time yields
As increases without bound, the events increase to eventual ruin. Hence the ultimate ruin probability satisfies the Lundberg inequality
The proof uses only bounded-time stopping; it does not presume that the martingale can be stopped with equality of expected values at an unbounded ruin time.
Use the classical risk model surplus , with , and write for its ultimate survival probability. The first-claim decomposition for survival probability follows by conditioning on the first arrival time of the Poisson process. That time has exponential distribution of rate . A claim at time leaves capital if , after which the Markov property restarts the same risk model. Consequently
Put and change variable :
The convolution is continuous since is bounded and is integrable. Differentiating proves the survival integro-differential equation
For the specified claim law, expand its probability density function as . This is an equal-weight mixture distribution of exponential distributions with rates and . In the convolution, set to obtain
Since , the requested coefficients are
For the exponential-mixture differential equation for survival probability, define , and . Differentiating the integrals yields
Apply to the last equation, where . The first two equations eliminate , giving
Thus
The characteristic polynomial factors as
The ordinary differential equation therefore has solution .
The claim expected value is . The relative safety loading is , and the given zero-capital survival probability is . The limit at infinity sets . A third condition comes from the original survival integro-differential equation: its convolution vanishes at zero, so . Therefore
which gives and . The final survival probability and ultimate ruin probability are
Both exponential coefficients of are positive. Hence increases from to one, and decreases from to zero. The initial slope is essential: the two stated boundary values alone do not determine all three constants of the eliminated differential equation.
In the classical risk model write , where the Poisson process has rate and is independent of the claim sizes. Define the ruin time and ultimate ultimate ruin probability by
The relative safety loading is , so . The adjustment coefficient is the nonzero positive solution
Existence and uniqueness follow from the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient. Explicitly, has derivative at zero and is strictly convex for positive claims. The assumed divergence of makes it cross zero once at a positive . When , an exponential lower bound from any positive tail event shows that . In particular is inside the finite-transform domain, not at its endpoint.
Put . Replacing in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model yields
By the tail integral formula for moments, . Therefore this is the defective renewal equation
The original kernel has mass . For the exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel, set
Multiplying by gives the required proper renewal equation
To verify that this is a probability renewal kernel, Tonelli theorem gives, for in the finite-transform domain,
The adjustment coefficient equation consequently implies . Its expected value is
It is finite because is interior to the finite-transform domain and is positive because the strict convex crossing has derivative .
We quote the key renewal theorem in the following form: for a nonarithmetic distribution of positive increments with finite positive mean , and a directly Riemann integrable nonnegative function , the locally bounded solution of satisfies . It has renewal representation ; this follows by iterating the equation, since the probability that arbitrarily many positive increments have sum at most a fixed tends to zero.
Here is absolutely continuous, and hence nonarithmetic distribution, even if the original claim law has atoms. The function is continuous. Choose with . The Markov inequality gives , and hence . Continuity on compact intervals and this exponential bound make the upper Riemann sums finite with uniformly vanishing tails, proving direct Riemann integrability.
A further application of Tonelli theorem evaluates the forcing integral:
All hypotheses of the key renewal theorem are now checked, so the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor is
This proves the requested Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic, including its constant.
For the two-component hyperexponential distribution, conditioning on the chosen exponential component gives
Its moment-generating function and derivative are
The moment-generating function diverges at , while the derivative of the adjustment equation at zero is negative. Strict convexity therefore places its unique positive adjustment coefficient in
The adjustment equation, divided by , becomes
Using this identity to subtract from gives
Thus the asymptotic constant in terms of and is
The denominator is positive on the identified domain. If desired, is the smaller root of ; the other algebraic root lies outside the positive finite-transform interval and is not an adjustment coefficient.
Use for the premium income rate, reserving later for the smaller exponential decay rate. In the classical risk model, the surplus is
Here is the relative safety loading. The aggregate claims form a Compound Poisson process. Define , so ruin occurs when . By independent increments and the exponential formula for a marked Poisson sum,
Thus is a nonnegative continuous-time martingale with , because the adjustment coefficient makes the exponent vanish.
Let . Apply the optional stopping theorem at the bounded stopping time . On , , so
Letting increase proves the Lundberg inequality and the unscaled limit:
For the precise asymptotic, put
The given exponential integral identity makes a probability density. Multiplying the given defective renewal equation by turns it into the ordinary renewal equation
For clarity, the version of the key renewal theorem used here is: if the interarrival law is nonarithmetic, has mean , and is directly Riemann integrable, the locally bounded solution of this renewal equation satisfies . The infinite-mean version gives zero for nonnegative directly Riemann integrable .
All the hypotheses can be checked here. The density gives a nonarithmetic distribution. The Tonelli theorem gives
Furthermore
Thus is continuous and integrable, and . On a mesh of width , the difference between its upper and lower sums is at most ; its upper sum is at most . This proves direct Riemann integrability rather than assuming it. Also by the Lundberg inequality, so the solution is locally bounded. Its renewal representation is , where and ; the residual after iteration tends to zero on compact intervals because sums of positive interarrivals tend to infinity.
Writing , the tilted interarrival expected value is . The key renewal theorem gives the Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic
If , the same formula is interpreted as . A positive finite asymptotic constant requires ; this extra integrability is not explicitly stated in the paper.
For the final two-exponential case, evaluate the defective renewal equation at zero:
One can identify the adjustment coefficient without silently assuming . For , set
It is finite and positive. Integrating the nonnegative terms of the defective renewal equation, using the Tonelli theorem, first shows that is finite and then gives
As , because . By monotone convergence theorem, . The integrated tail distribution in the classical risk model has density , so by the tail integral formula for moments. Hence solves the adjustment equation, and its stipulated uniqueness implies . Finally the displayed form of gives the remaining constants
In particular the decay exponent and the coefficient do not affect or . The in these final answers is the printed decay rate, not .
Relative safety loading 2026-10-06
If the expected claim outflow per unit time is , the relative safety loading is . Positive loading means expected premium income exceeds expected claim outflow. This is the net profit condition in the classical risk model.
In the classical risk model, condition on the first arrival of the Poisson process. If available capital just before it is , ruin has probability . Integrate this expression at against and change variables from to . Differentiating the lower limit gives the displayed equation. The claim-density convolution is continuous for bounded , so the first-arrival representation also supplies the differentiability required by the equation.
In the classical risk model with premium rate and claim Poisson process rate , the first-claim decomposition for survival probability implies the displayed equation for ultimate survival probability. Change the first-claim integral to an integral over available capital and differentiate its lower limit. The bounded survival probability function convolved with the integrable claim probability density function is continuous, so this also establishes the needed differentiability. In particular .
In the classical risk model with density and relative safety loading , the claim mean is and . The convolution terms satisfy . Applying to yields . Its solution is fixed by , and , giving the displayed probability. The derivative condition comes from the original integral equation and excludes spurious solutions of the higher-order equation.
Ultimate ruin probability Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
The probability that the insurance surplus in a classical risk model becomes negative at some finite time, starting from capital . Ultimate survival has probability . A finite-horizon ruin probability instead restricts the crossing time to a specified time interval.
In a classical risk model with positive relative safety loading, zero initial capital has ultimate survival probability , where is the claim-arrival rate, the claim expected value and the premium rate. It depends on the claim law through its mean alone. It is not the event of never receiving a claim: premium accumulates between arrivals.