Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 42 6 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An Edgeworth expansion refines the central limit theorem by incorporating higher cumulants. For iid centred observations with variance , standardized sum , standardized third cumulant and fourth cumulant , its central-region density expansion isunder sufficient moment and smoothness/nonlattice conditions. Here , , are probabilists' Hermite polynomials. Expanding the characteristic exponent gives the cubic and quartic terms, while squaring the cubic term in the exponential gives the correction. Integrating the first correction, using , givesThus skewness determines the first departure from the normal approximation; inversion gives a Cornish-Fisher expansion for quantiles. These are asymptotic expansions, not guaranteed nonnegative densities in extreme tails. Lattice data require continuity/lattice corrections, and moment assumptions alone do not justify a uniform smooth-density expansion.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 42 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let the summands be independent and identically distributed random variables with mean , variance , and standardized third cumulant . DefineAn Edgeworth expansion refines the central limit theorem using the higher cumulants of one summand. Some smoothness and moment assumptions are essential: finite variance alone does not supply a density expansion. A convenient sufficient set for the expansions here is a smooth density whose derivatives decay faster than every inverse power, together with for some . These assumptions give all required moments, Fourier smoothing and the nonlattice characteristic-function condition. Less restrictive sufficient conditions are possible, but this set covers the logistic model below.
Write and for the standard normal density and standard normal distribution function. The first-order density Edgeworth expansion isThe remainder is uniform on every fixed compact interval under the stated assumptions. To see the origin of the correction, for the cumulant expansion of its characteristic function givesExponentiating and using Fourier inversion yields the displayed correction, since the inverse transform of is . The Probabilists' Hermite polynomial convention is being used: and .
The corresponding distribution function expansion isuniformly on fixed compact intervals. The sign follows from . These are expansions of both the density and distribution function; a uniform density error alone would not justify integrating an error bound over the entire real line without the accompanying tail control.
For a fixed , write . At leading order the proposed quantile expansion gives , and strict monotonicity gives . Substitute into the distribution function expansion. A Taylor expansion at givesSince , the coefficient of must vanish. Thus the first Cornish-Fisher expansion coefficients are
For the logistic distribution, set . Its density satisfies and has exponentially decreasing tails. Symmetry and integrability give , and the supplied integral givesTherefore , , and the central limit theorem givesWriting and , the condition is equivalent toConsequently the confidence intervalhas limiting coverage . Whether the finite endpoints are included makes no probability difference because the sample mean has a density.
The centered logistic distribution is symmetric, so . Its smooth density and exponentially decreasing derivatives satisfy the conditions stated above; in particular all moments exist and Fourier smoothing is available. The first correction in the Edgeworth expansion vanishes, leaving at each of the two fixed quantiles. Subtracting gives the stronger conclusionThe standardized law is independent of , so this coverage-error conclusion holds with the same bound for every location parameter.