Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 207 7 b i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
In the counting-process intensity in survival analysis, the counting process jumps once if an observed event occurs; the at-risk process is one immediately before only while individual is still observed and event-free. Conditional on that information, the chance of an event in a short interval is for an at-risk individual and zero otherwise. This is the meaning ofThe history is the filtration generated by the observed event and censoring histories, entry information, and available covariates strictly before . In particular, it determines the current risk set but does not reveal future event times. The right-hand side is the infinitesimal compensator of a counting process; the equality is interpreted as an intensity statement to first order in .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 207 5 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
A proportional hazards model assigns individual the hazard function , where is the baseline hazard for multiplier one and is a time-constant hazard multiplier. In a Cox proportional-hazards model, for a covariate vector and coefficient vector ; ratios are constant whenever the baseline is nonzero.
Assume independent individuals, independent censoring conditional on the covariates, and no tied events. Immediately before an event at , condition on its observed risk set and one event in a small time interval. The individual event probability is , while the total is . Their limiting ratio is . Multiplication over observed events gives the Cox partial likelihoodThe unspecified baseline hazard cancels. This is the usual successive conditional event contribution defining the partial likelihood, not the full event-time likelihood conditioned simultaneously on all event times.
For the four individuals the successive event risk sets are , and . Individual leaves at its right censoring time and contributes no event numerator. ConsequentlyThe last event contributes one and carries no further relative-risk information.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 207 5 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Because , the three possible complete event orders are , , and . Write and . Their partial likelihoods, with the final singleton factor omitted, are respectivelyAdding first and gives , and thereforeThusThis is Cox rank-likelihood deletion consistency: summing out the unobserved position of leaves the relative order information in the observed events. It is an algebraic marginalization of complete-order probabilities under time-constant hazard multipliers. It does not include the probability density function of the actual censoring time, establish the distribution of given all observed times, or justify informative censoring. Ignoring the censoring mechanism in the survival analysis still requires independent censoring given the modeled covariates.
Piecewise-constant covariate approximation 2026-10-06
Approximate changing covariates by constant values on observation intervals. The generator matrix is then constant on each interval, with transition matrix . Multiplying the relevant entries gives a conditional likelihood function for discretely observed states.
Randomized minimization in clinical trials 2026-10-14
For each new eligible participant, compare the imbalance that would result from each treatment assignment across prespecified baseline covariate margins. Assign with a probability favoring the less imbalanced choice, while retaining a random component and allocation concealment. This targets marginal balance when a large number of joint strata makes stratified randomization with blocks inefficient. It is a sequential allocation rule, and inference should respect its design.
Regression model Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
A regression model specifies features of the conditional distribution of a response given predictor covariates, often a conditional mean or a full parametric density. Linear regression specifies a linear conditional mean; logistic regression specifies a logit-linear conditional probability for a binary response. The conditional comparison represented by a coefficient depends on which covariates are included.
Model the joint distribution by multiplying a response model by a sequential dropout model. For example, the logit of dropout before visit , conditional on remaining observed, can depend on the currently unobserved as well as previous responses and baseline covariates. The observed-data likelihood sums over the missing binary responses. Such a dependence parameter is usually weakly identified or unidentified from observed responses alone; sensitivity analysis must vary it over scientifically justified values.
Survival data 2026-10-14
Survival data describe the time from a specified origin to an event, together with covariates and the observation mechanism. Under right censoring, the observed exit time is and the event indicator is . With left truncation, an entry time is also recorded and subjects are observed only if . Recording the time origin, entry, exit and event indicator is essential for constructing valid risk sets.
True state dependence 2026-10-07
A previous outcome may affect a subsequent outcome after controlling both measured covariates and persistent unobserved heterogeneity. This is true state dependence. An observed lagged-outcome association alone does not establish it, because omitted individual propensities can create apparent persistence.
Unobserved heterogeneity Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-25
Persistent unmeasured differences between individuals can generate outcome dependence after adjusting for observed covariates. A random intercept is one representation. Conditional independence given that latent variable need not persist after it is integrated out; apparent history dependence can therefore occur without true state dependence.