Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 221 3 iv Solution 2026-09-28
Differentiating the residualized objective givesThis is the population Frisch–Waugh–Lovell theorem.
For a semiparametric estimator, estimate and flexibly. With cross-fitting, obtain held-out predictions and regress the residualized outcome on the residualized treatment through the origin:Cross-fitting limits overfitting bias and permits flexible nuisance estimators under the usual convergence and overlap conditions.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 221 2 iii Solution 2026-09-28
Estimate the propensity score and the untreated outcome regression , preferably with cross-fitting when flexible methods are used, and setWith , the resulting one-step estimator of the ATT isEquivalently,This is an augmented inverse-probability-weighted estimator; it is consistent when either the propensity model or the untreated outcome model is correct, subject to the usual regularity and positivity conditions.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 205 2 Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Use the augmented inverse-probability-weighted estimatorCondition on the independently trained nuisance estimators. Subtracting the oracle influence variableproduces a conditional empirical fluctuation with variance after multiplication by , using , overlap, and the bounded conditional variance. Its conditional bias iswhose absolute value is at most by Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. ThusThe central limit theorem and Slutsky theorem give the claimed limit. Without auxiliary data, use cross-fitting: split the sample into folds, train both nuisance estimators away from each observation's fold, and average the same score over held-out observations.