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For a reversible Markov chain with invariant law $\mu$, its Markov kernel acts as a self-adjoint operator $P$ on $L^2(\mu )$. An absolute spectral gap means that $\Vert P\Vert$ on the mean-zero functions is at most $r<1$. Geometric ergodicity implies this gap for a reversible chain. Indeed, for bounded mean-zero $g$ supported where the geometric prefactor is bounded, the total-variation estimate gives $⟨g,P^{2n}g⟩\le C_g{r}^{2n}$. The spectral theorem for normal operators puts its spectral measure in $[-r,r]$. Such test functions are dense in the mean-zero subspace.

Suppose a Markov kernel satisfies $PV(x)\le M<\infty$ for a measurable $V\ge 1$. For $0<\rho <1$ and $R>M/\rho$, the sublevel set $C=\{V\le R\}$ gives $PV\le \rho V+M{1}_C$. If $C$ is a small set, this is a geometric drift condition. The hypotheses of an irreducible Markov chain and an aperiodic Markov chain are also required for the usual geometric ergodicity theorem.

For an aperiodic positive Harris recurrent Markov chain with geometric ergodicity, an observable with stationary moment $\pi (|h{|}^{2+\delta })<\infty$ for some $\delta >0$ satisfies a central limit theorem. Its asymptotic variance is ${\gamma }_h(0)+2{\sum }_{k\ge 1}{\gamma }_h(k)$, with stationary covariances. Ergodicity alone does not guarantee this theorem.

A geometric drift condition requires a measurable $V\ge 1$, a small set $C$, constants $\lambda <1$ and $b<\infty$, andTogether with irreducibility and aperiodicity, it implies geometric ergodicity. A global Doeblin condition allows $C$ to be the entire state space and $V=1$.

A convenient general-state-space ergodic theorem is the following. For a positive Harris recurrent Markov chain with invariant probability measure $\pi$, and a measurable function $h$ with $\pi |h|<\infty$,Here $\pi h=\int hd\pi$ is the stationary expected value. Harris recurrence means that every set of positive irreducibility measure is visited almost surely from every state; positive recurrence supplies an invariant probability rather than only an infinite invariant measure. The ergodic theorem for a positive Harris recurrent Markov chain holds from any starting state under these Harris hypotheses. aperiodicity is not necessary just for averages.

A useful sufficient form of the central limit theorem for a geometrically ergodic Markov chain adds aperiodicity, geometric ergodicity, and $\pi (|h{|}^{2+\delta })<\infty$ for some $\delta >0$. It givesThese are sufficient hypotheses, not a claim that irreducibility alone ensures a central limit theorem. The Markov chain Monte Carlo asymptotic variance uses stationary covariances ${\gamma }_h(k)={\mathrm{Cov}}_{\pi }(h(X_0),h(X_k))$, with ${\gamma }_h(0)={\mathrm{Var}}_{\pi }h$. The series is absolutely convergent under the stated sufficient assumptions. If ${\gamma }_h(0)>0$, write ${\rho }_h(k)={\gamma }_h(k)/{\gamma }_h(0)$ and $v_h={\gamma }_h(0){\tau }_{\mathrm{int}}$, where the integrated autocorrelation time is ${\tau }_{\mathrm{int}}=1+2{\sum }_{k\ge 1}{\rho }_h(k)$. When $v_h>0$, the effective sample size of a Markov chain is approximately $n/{\tau }_{\mathrm{int}}$. Negative correlations can reduce the asymptotic variance; a zero asymptotic variance gives a degenerate normal limit. For constant $h$, variance is zero and the autocorrelation normalization is undefined.

First require a proper target: $0<Z={\int }_{{\mathbb{R}}^d}\pi (x)dx<\infty$ and $\bar{\pi }=\pi /Z$. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm uses the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probabilitySufficient general conditions are phi-irreducibility, aperiodicity, and a drift-minorisation condition establishing geometric ergodicity of the resulting chain, together with a stationary $(2+\delta )$th moment for the observable being averaged. These imply the central limit theorem for a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. The observable's moment condition must be included: conditions on the sampler alone cannot give the theorem for every arbitrary function.

A concrete stronger condition, directly in terms of the proposal, isTogether with a bounded observable, this is an especially simple sufficient answer. The accepted proposal density is $\min \{q(y\mid x),\bar{\pi }(y)q(x\mid y)/\bar{\pi }(x)\}$, so it is at least $ϵ\bar{\pi }(y)$. The kernel satisfies a global minorization condition with the target, hence uniform geometric ergodicity, positive Harris recurrence, and aperiodicity. An independent proposal whose importance weight $\bar{\pi }(y)/q(y)$ is uniformly bounded is one example. No claim of these properties follows merely from writing down a positive proposal.

Take observation periods to have positive lengths $t_i>0$, and let $P$ be the Markov kernel of a sweep which first draws $b$ given the current $\theta$ and then draws the new vector ${\Theta }^{\prime }$. Write $A_i=a+y_i$. Conditional on $b$, independence and the gamma distribution mean and variance giveAveraging over the full conditional distribution of $b$ preserves this bound, uniformly in the current state. Therefore $PV(\theta )\le M:=1+D<\infty$. This is the mechanism in bounded conditional moments imply a geometric drift.

Choose $0<\rho <1$, $R>M/\rho$, and $C=\{\theta :V(\theta )\le R\}$. Outside $C$, $PV\le M<\rho V$; inside $C$, $PV\le M\le \rho V+M$. HenceFor completeness, $C$ is a small set, even though it approaches the boundary of the positive orthant. Choose $\delta >0$ small enough that $B=[\delta ,2\delta {]}^n\subset C$. On $C$, $s={\sum }_i{\theta }_i\le \sqrt{R-1}$. The conditional gamma distribution of $b$ has fixed shape $na+c$ and rate $1+s$ in a compact positive interval. Its probability density function therefore has a positive common lower bound on $b\in [1,2]$. For those $b$, the product probability density function of ${\Theta }^{\prime }$ similarly has a positive common lower bound on $B$, since every shape is positive and every rate $b+t_i$ lies in a compact positive interval. Integrating over $b\in [1,2]$ gives $P(\theta ,\cdot )\ge \epsilon \eta (\cdot )$ on $C$, where $\eta$ is the uniform distribution on $B$ and $\epsilon >0$.

The transition probability density function is positive throughout the positive orthant, giving an irreducible Markov chain. Since $B\subset C$, the box minorization includes starts in the same box, which gives an aperiodic Markov chain. The proper prior distributions and bounded Poisson distribution likelihood have positive finite evidence, so the invariant posterior distribution is proper. Together with the geometric drift condition, these hypotheses imply geometric ergodicity. In particular, the argument proves the required drift rather than assuming that every Gibbs sampler is geometrically ergodic.

The positive-period convention matters. If zero lengths are allowed, the printed assertion can fail: take $n=1$, $a=c=1$, $t_1=y_1=0$. Then $b\mid \theta \sim \mathrm{Gamma}(2,1+\theta )$ and ${\Theta }^{\prime }\mid b\sim \mathrm{Gamma}(1,b)$, soThis example has a proper posterior distribution but cannot satisfy a finite quadratic geometric drift condition. Thus the proof establishes the intended claim for positive observation periods, not an unrestricted extension to zero exposure.

Let $P$ be the Markov kernel and $\mu$ its invariant probability measure. Using the conventiongeometric ergodicity means that there are $r\in (0,1)$ and a finite measurable state-dependent prefactor $M(x)$ such thatHere total variation distance is used, and the rate $r$ does not depend on $x$. The prefactor need not be uniformly bounded; that stronger property is uniform geometric ergodicity. For a deterministic starting state, this estimate must hold at that state. If the definition is made only $\mu$-almost everywhere, the subsequent assertions concern those starting states where the prefactor is finite. The reversible Markov chain assumption means $\mu (dx)P(x,dy)=\mu (dy)P(y,dx)$.

Put $B=\Vert f{\Vert }_{\infty }$, $v={\mathrm{Var}}_{\mu }(f)$, and $N_n=n-m_n$. We first obtain a uniform-in-$f$ stationary bound, then compare the burned-in trajectory with a stationary one.

For a reversible Markov chain, geometric ergodicity gives an absolute L2 spectral gap of a reversible Markov chain. Thus, for some $r<1$, the Markov kernel viewed as an operator satisfiesOne can use the rate in the total-variation estimate. To see why, reversibility makes $P$ a self-adjoint operator. For bounded mean-zero $h$ supported on a set where $M$ is bounded,The spectral theorem for normal operators writes the left side as $\int t^{2k}d{\nu }_h(t)$. Any positive spectral mass where $|t|>r$ would contradict the inequality as $k\to \infty$. These test functions are dense in $L_0^2(\mu )$: truncate a function and restrict it to $\{M\le j\}$, then correct its mean using a bounded function supported on a fixed positive-measure set where $M$ is bounded. Hence the spectral restriction extends to the entire mean-zero space.

Let $(W_i)$ be the stationary chain. For $h=f-\mu f$, the stationary covariance bound for reversible Markov chains givesConsequently

The initial law of the burned-in trajectory is $P^{m_n}(x,\cdot )$. Its total variation distance from $\mu$ is at most ${\epsilon }_n=M(x)r^{m_n}$. Attaching the same conditional future evolution cannot increase that distance, so the entire length-$N_n$ path laws differ by at most ${\epsilon }_n$. For either path the sum $S$ has $|S|\le B{N}_n$. The dual bound for total variation distance gives a difference of at most $2B^2{N}_n^2{\epsilon }_n$ in the second moments, and at most $4B^2{N}_n^2{\epsilon }_n$ in the squares of the means. This burn-in total variation comparison yieldsSince $m_n=\lfloor n^{1/3}\rfloor$, $N_n{r}^{m_n}\to 0$. Dividing by $N_n$ givesThe constant depends on the chain, not on $f$.

The geometric drift condition requires a measurable $V:\mathcal{X}\to [1,\infty )$, a small set $C$, constants $\lambda \in (0,1)$ and $b<\infty$, andSmallness means that for some $m\ge 1$, $\epsilon >0$, and probability measure $\nu$, $P^m(x,\cdot )\ge \epsilon \nu (\cdot )$ for every $x\in C$. With irreducibility and aperiodicity, this drift-minorisation condition implies geometric ergodicity. The function $V$ controls the chain away from the small set; inside that set the additive constant allows unrestricted bounded drift.

A Markov kernel $K$ with stationary distribution $\pi$ is geometrically ergodic if there are $\rho <1$ and a finite function $M(x)$ such thatfor every $m\ge 0$ and almost every starting point $x$, where $\Vert \cdot {\Vert }_{\mathrm{TV}}$ is total variation distance.

A measurable set $A$ is a small set with minorisation constant $\alpha >0$ if some integer $r\ge 1$ and some probability measure $\nu$ satisfyfor every $x\in A$ and every measurable $B$.

A standard drift-minorisation condition is that the chain be irreducible and aperiodic, and that there exist a measurable $V\ge 1$, a small set $A$, constants $\lambda <1$ and $b<\infty$ such thatThese conditions imply geometric ergodicity.

Uniform geometric ergodicity strengthens geometric ergodicity by bounding the prefactor uniformly over the starting state. If $P(x,\cdot )\ge \epsilon \mu (\cdot )$ globally and $\mu$ is invariant, thenWrite $P=\epsilon \Pi +(1-\epsilon )R$, where $\Pi$ draws independently from $\mu$, to obtain the bound.