Approximate experimental design 2026-10-14
An approximate design is a probability measure on the design region, with weight specifying a proportion of observations at . For independent observations and common error variance , a linear regression with vector has normalized information matrix of an experimental design ; its least-squares estimator has covariance when the allocations realize these proportions. Exact designs restrict to integers.
D-optimal design 2026-10-14
A D-optimal design maximizes the determinant of the information matrix of an experimental design, equivalently minimizing the determinant of the covariance matrix of a fixed-size least-squares estimator. It minimizes the volume of a fixed-level confidence ellipsoid for the model coefficients under the usual Gaussian model.
For continuous regressors spanning a -dimensional space on a compact design region, and approximate designs with nonsingular information matrix of an experimental design, the following are equivalent: D-optimal design, G-optimal design, and . A D-optimal design has nonpositive directional derivatives . Conversely, if every such derivative is nonpositive, concavity of bounds every competing information matrix by the tangent at , proving D-optimality. The sensitivity average is , and a D-optimal design exists by compactness of the information-matrix set and the spanning assumption; hence the optimal G-value is . Sensitivity equals at every support point of an optimal design. The equivalence concerns approximate allocations; integer restrictions can change exact-design optima.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 39 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let and let an approximate experimental design specify the proportions of observations allocated to points of the design region. Its normalized information matrix of an experimental design isFor independent equal-variance observations realizing those proportions, , and the least-squares estimator has covariance matrix . A D-optimal design maximizes , equivalently minimizing the determinant of this covariance at fixed . A G-optimal design minimizes the largest variance of a fitted regression mean over the design region, equivalentlywhere is the design sensitivity function. This is the variance of the estimated mean multiplied by , not the variance of a new noisy observation.
For continuous regressors spanning a -dimensional parameter space on a compact design region, the general equivalence theorem for optimal design states that, among approximate designs with nonsingular information matrices, the following are equivalent: being a D-optimal design, being a G-optimal design, andAt every support point of an optimal design, . To see the criterion, the sensitivity average is , so the supremum is at least . Adding an infinitesimal allocation at has directional derivative for . At a D-optimum each derivative is nonpositive. Conversely, if all sensitivities are at most , the tangent bound for the concave function shows that no competing design increases it. A nonsingular D-optimum exists by the spanning assumption and compactness of the information-matrix set, so the smallest possible G-value is also . Equality at support points follows from the average. The theorem refers to the full approximate-design class; constrained integer allocations or mandated augmentations require separate comparison.
For the linear mean , take . Equal replication at the four corners givesAll odd corner sums and the sum of vanish, while each squared regressor sum is . If is the mean of the observations at , , the least-squares normal equations giveIn particular the intercept is the average of the four cell means, and each slope is the average of its sign-weighted cell means. Independence and equal error variance suffice for this covariance formula; normal errors are not needed for it.
The normalized corner design has , so its sensitivity iswith equality at all four corners. Since , the general equivalence theorem for optimal design proves that the equally weighted corner design is D-optimal and G-optimal.
For the augmentation, all added observations share the regressor . The enlarged design matrix satisfiesBy the matrix determinant lemma,For the permitted nine points, the determinant is at the center, at an edge midpoint and at a corner. ThereforeAll four corners tie for the best mandated single-point augmentation. This is optimality among the specified augmented designs, not unrestricted D-optimality with observations: the resulting normalized determinant is , whereas equal corner proportions have determinant one. The restriction that the extra runs all occur at one point is what prevents recovering equal proportions.