For a density with finitely many jumps at separated points and the unit-width box kernel, take smaller than all consecutive jump spacings. The smoothing bias is supported in disjoint length- neighbourhoods of the jumps. At each jump its two sides form triangles of height , and exact integration givesCombined with the integrated variance of a kernel density estimator, this gives expected error at .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 49 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
In kernel density estimation, take a kernel for density estimation that is nonnegative, symmetric, and has integral one, finite , and finite . Its smoothing bandwidth gives and the kernel density estimatorfrom an independent and identically distributed sample with probability density function . Nonnegativity and unit mass make the estimate itself a probability density function. We compare kernel for density estimation shapes by their optimized mean integrated squared error, rather than by their performance at an arbitrarily common numerical smoothing bandwidth.
For the usual second-order theory, assume, for example, that belongs to the Sobolev space and , and let , . The expectation is the convolution . The vanishing first moment of the symmetric kernel for density estimation and the integral Taylor remainder giveContinuity of translations in the L2 norm, with domination by , shows that in the L2 norm. Hence the integrated squared bias of a kernel density estimator isBy independence, the exact integrated variance of a kernel density estimator isIndeed the integrated second moment of a single summand is , and its integrated squared mean is . The latter quantity is bounded by , by Young's convolution inequality, so its contribution is . The bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error therefore yields the leading criterionThis asymptotic mean integrated squared error displays the bias-variance tradeoff: a small smoothing bandwidth increases integrated variance, while a large one increases squared bias of an estimator.
Differentiating the asymptotic mean integrated squared error with respect to gives . It changes sign once, from negative to positive, so its unique minimum isAt this minimum the integrated variance term is four times the squared bias of an estimator term. Substitution givesThus the leading rate is , and the shape comparison reduces to minimizing .
There is an essential scale ambiguity: if , then . Changing the scale of the kernel for density estimation merely changes the numerical convention for the smoothing bandwidth. MoreoverA comparison at the same raw is therefore not a fair comparison of shape. One can normalize the second moment to one, but that does not make the optimal smoothing bandwidth independent of shape.
The canonical kernel for density estimation instead chooses the unique scaleIt satisfies , and soConsequently all canonical kernels share the same leading optimal bandwidth . Only the multiplicative constant depends on shape. This is precisely the separation of shape choice and scale choice that makes the canonical kernel normalization useful. For an original unscaled kernel for density estimation, its corresponding optimal smoothing bandwidth is .
To prove optimal shape, scale a candidate kernel for density estimation to have second moment one. Let andDirect integration gives , , and . Thus is a rescaled Epanechnikov kernel. For any admissible with the same mass and second moment,Outside , and , because . The integral inside is therefore nonnegative, and multiplying by gives . Expanding the square now provesEquality forces almost everywhere. At fixed second moment, minimizing is equivalent to minimizing . Since is scale invariant, this proves the optimality of the Epanechnikov kernel over all nonnegative symmetric second-order kernels for density estimation, including the equality case up to rescaling.
In its usual scale, the optimal Epanechnikov kernel isIts canonical scale is , givingThe optimal Epanechnikov kernel shape is therefore a truncated parabola, rather than a particular support radius. The canonical kernel and unit-second-moment version represent the same shape but different scale conventions.
The numerical gains over other reasonable kernels for density estimation are modest. Define asymptotic relative efficiency against the optimal Epanechnikov kernel by the sample-size fraction giving the same optimized leading mean integrated squared error:For the Gaussian density kernel , and , so its efficiency is . For the uniform smoothing kernel , and , giving efficiency . The Gaussian density kernel is infinitely smooth, whereas the optimal Epanechnikov kernel has compact support and allows each observation to affect only a finite window. Such computational and smoothness considerations may outweigh a small leading-efficiency difference.
In practice is unknown. A plug-in estimator estimates this roughness functional from a pilot estimate of the second derivative and substitutes it into the optimal smoothing bandwidth formula. Alternatively, Leave-one-out cross-validation minimizeswhere uses the other observations. By independence, the expectation of the second term is , so . Thus it targets integrated error without knowing . The choice of smoothing bandwidth remains important: even for the optimal Epanechnikov kernel, setting multiplies the leading minimum error by .
The preceding optimum concerns nonnegative second-order kernels for density estimation and twice-smooth densities on the real line. Signed kernels of order ell can cancel higher moments for smoother densities and yield different rates, but may produce negative density estimates. A support boundary or a density jump also requires separate bias of a kernel density estimator analysis. These settings do not contradict the proved second-order optimality of the Epanechnikov kernel.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 42 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Iterating the recurrence yieldsThus every finite collection of the is a linear transformation of independent standard normal random variables, and has a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The expected values are zero. Independence of the givesFor , the recurrence writes plus a sum of future innovations independent of . Hence . The required vector law isThe covariance matrix is positive definite: the lower-triangular transformation from has nonzero diagonal entries . This also identifies a stationary autoregressive process of order one, with marginal density .
With the standard normal density as the kernel for density estimation, the two characteristic functions are and . The Gaussian random variable has mean zero and variance , soThis expression is real. Substitution in the given integrated covariance expression, followed by the Gaussian integral for , gives
To bound the total Gaussian autoregressive kernel variance correction, apply the mean value theorem to . For , the whole interval between and is bounded below by . ThereforeSumming the geometric series gives the uniform boundIt follows from the supplied variance identity thatThe constant depends on the fixed , but not on or . In particular this applies to the requested shrinking-bandwidth regime; the covariance bound itself does not need .
All observations have the same marginal density , so dependence changes the variance but not the bias of a kernel density estimator: . Write and . For a smooth density with , the integrated variance of a kernel density estimator in the independent case is . A second-order Taylor expansion of the convolution gives in the L2 norm. Thus the bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error givesThe first two terms are the asymptotic mean integrated squared error. The additional dependence term is smaller than , so the leading optimal bandwidth and optimal rate are the same as for independent data:Here both and are the standard normal density. Since , direct Gaussian integrals giveConsequently the explicit leading bandwidth isAt this bandwidth the leading integrated variance is four times the leading integrated squared bias, which is also a check on the minimization constant.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 39 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Use the usual probability-kernel convention: , , and , in addition to symmetry and compact support. These conditions are needed for the stated finite bound; symmetry and compact support by themselves do not impose normalization or nonnegativity. Interpret the differentiability assumption in the usual Sobolev space sense , or assume classical regularity sufficient for the integral Taylor remainder. The kernel density estimator isThe bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error, followed by Tonelli theorem, yieldsIndependence and a change of variables give the exact integrated variance of a kernel density estimatorAll changes of integration order are justified either by nonnegativity or by the displayed finite integrals.
For the bias of a kernel density estimator, symmetry gives . Taylor's integral remainder, with translations understood in , givesThe Minkowski inequality and translation invariance of the L2 norm implywhere . Consequently we obtain the slightly stronger conclusionSince , this proves the requested bound. For signed kernels, the same argument has in place of ; the printed bound is not generally justified merely by signed-kernel symmetry. For example, let and . This symmetric compactly supported signed kernel has integral one and , but its fourth moment is nonzero. For a normal density its convolution has nonzero bias at any fixed positive bandwidth. Sending would therefore contradict a bound containing only the integrated variance term.
Writing the requested bound as , differentiation gives when . Thus gives mean integrated squared error of order . With the sharper constant one instead has ; the rate is identical.
A direct heuristic for is to choose a twice differentiable pilot kernel , estimate by the second derivative kernel density estimatorand integrate its square. Its integrated variance contains a diagonal term , which should not be mistaken for the target. A useful corrected U-statistic removes that diagonal:Its expectation is . Thus smoothing bias of an estimator, rather than the diagonal contribution, remains. For a smooth compactly supported probability pilot kernel, the same variance calculation givesThe second term tends to zero because convolution with a shrinking probability kernel approximates every function. Thus and make the raw squared pilot estimate consistent for the quadratic density derivative functional. If , thenso the diagonal-corrected U-statistic is consistent under the same choice. Consistency already uses the assumed ; the additional third-derivative hypothesis is relevant to more ambitious rate heuristics.
Three bounded continuous derivatives do not justify a general root- estimation rate for . For a smooth perturbation with compact support, the directional derivative iswhere the last expression requires a fourth derivative in the appropriate weak sense. A regular root- argument would need an influence function proportional to , with finite variance under . Three derivatives do not supply that condition.
For a more quantitative heuristic, impose the additional assumption , use a smooth Fourier cutoff of width , and estimate the quadratic functional by its off-diagonal U-statistic. The tail bias of an estimator is because the Plancherel theorem weights this functional by frequency to the fourth power. The degenerate part of its standard deviation is : the squared norm of the quadratic kernel scales as . At , these two terms balance at and have size , already slower than ; any additional first-order variance cannot improve that balance. To make both terms requires and , which are compatible only when . This is an illustrative smoothness calculation under extra Sobolev and moment assumptions, not a rate theorem asserted solely from bounded third derivatives. Particular much smoother probability density functions may of course permit root- estimation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 33 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
For the unit-width box kernel, the convolution and kernel density estimator areandIn particular . The scaling gives . Even if is not square-integrable, Young's convolution inequality gives because and .
Using independence to eliminate the cross terms in the centred estimator, and Tonelli theorem to integrate the nonnegative variance, gives the exact integrated variance of a kernel density estimator:The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality now yieldsThis constant comes from the unit norm of the unscaled unit-width box kernel.
For the piecewise constant probability density function, integrability forces the constants on both unbounded outer intervals to be zero. Thus is bounded, has compact support, and has finitely many jumps. Let denote the jump at . For smaller than the least gap between consecutive breakpoints, the smoothing regions do not overlap. Outside these regions the convolution equals .
Within a region, put . For , the bias is ; for , it is . Endpoint values do not affect an norm. Integrating these two triangular errors givesThis is the box-kernel bias of a piecewise constant density. By the triangle inequality, with ,Balancing this bias-variance tradeoff with gives, for all sufficiently large ,
Second derivative kernel density estimator 2026-10-07
Differentiating a twice differentiable kernel density estimator twice estimates . Its integrated variance of a kernel density estimator analogue is at most . This explains why derivative estimation requires more smoothing than ordinary density estimation.