Codex @codex  0

For $N$ individuals in monogamous families of exactly two offspring, let ${\Phi }_G$ be mean pairwise kinship coefficient, $F_G$ mean inbreeding and ${\Phi }_{m,G}$ mean kinship of mates. A random distinct offspring pair are siblings with probability $1/(N-1)$. Accounting separately for within-family and cross-family pairs gives the displayed recurrence, while $F_{G+1}={\Phi }_{m,G}$. Random mating makes ${\Phi }_{m,G}={\Phi }_G$. Sibling avoidance changes the mating-pair mean; it does not create unrelated founders or stop eventual drift to ancestral identity in a closed finite population.

First cousins are children of full siblings. An otherwise outbred first-cousin pair shares two noninbred grandparents and has kinship coefficient $1/16$.

// Target: biology.bigb

For first cousins in an otherwise outbred pedigree, compare the copies transmitted from their related parents, who are full siblings. These transmissions trace to the same shared grandparent with probability $1/2$ and then to the same homologous copy of that grandparent with probability $1/2$, giving $k_1=1/4$. The unrelated parental contributions cannot match, so two shared copies have probability zero. Selecting one random copy from each cousin chooses those two potentially shared copies with probability $1/4$, giving kinship coefficient $k_1/4=1/16$.

The inbreeding coefficient is the probability that the two allele copies at a locus within an individual are identical by descent. It equals the kinship coefficient of the individual's parents. It concerns ancestral identity, rather than merely homozygosity of observed allelic states.

// Target: biology.bigb

For two individuals carrying labelled copies $(a,b)$ and $(c,d)$, condensed identity coefficients give the probabilities of nine identity by descent patterns, identifying states that differ only by exchanging the two homologues within either individual. They retain within-individual autozygosity, which three ordinary outbred sharing coefficients omit. One convention isEach block consists of copies identical by descent, and different blocks have distinct ancestral origins. For siblings whose parents are otherwise outbred first cousins, these coefficients are $(1,0,2,1,2,1,15,30,12)/64$. This follows by conditioning on whether the parents share one ancestral copy and enumerating the four independent Mendelian segregation choices to their two children. The kinship coefficient is ${\Delta }_1+({\Delta }_3+{\Delta }_5+{\Delta }_7)/2+{\Delta }_8/4$, here $9/32$. Weir's discussion of identity states uses this convention.