Ehrenfest urn model 2026-10-06
The Ehrenfest urn model moves one uniformly chosen ball between two boxes at each step. For balls, the count in one box is a Markov chain on . Its stationary distribution is , and detailed balance makes it a reversible Markov chain. The chain has period two, but its mean recurrence time to the all-in-one-box state is still .
A finite irreducible Markov chain is positive recurrent. Its mean recurrence time to state , starting at and counting the first positive return, is . This identity comes from the long-run fraction of time spent at that state: successive return cycles each contain one visit at their start, so the fraction is the reciprocal of the mean cycle length. It remains valid for a periodic chain.
Here , hence
For the return is deterministically after two minutes, which checks the formula.
Starting at zero, the next renewal is at time , and there are no intervening renewals because . Thus the first return time obeys in distribution, indeed under the original renewal construction. Its mean recurrence time is
The chain returns to zero almost surely and has a finite expected return time, so zero is a positive recurrent state. The assumption is what upgrades recurrence to positive recurrence.
For a finite irreducible Markov chain with invariant distribution , the mean recurrence time of state is
The simple random walk on the hypercube has the uniform invariant distribution because the hypercube graph is regular, so every vertex has mass . Therefore the expected first positive return time to the initial vertex is
A distribution is an invariant distribution when
for every state . The pair satisfies detailed balance when
for every . Summing this identity over gives
so detailed balance implies invariance.
For an irreducible positive recurrent Markov chain, Kac's lemma relates the invariant mass to the mean recurrence time:
Normalizing the invariant distribution found in part (i) gives
The mean recurrence time formula now yields
False. Again use two states, but now take
The support condition holds. Under , the first return time to state one is identically one, so . Under , the chain is irreducible with stationary distribution . The mean recurrence time formula gives
Thus enlarging transition support does not imply a smaller mean return time.