Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 210 3 Solution 2026-09-28
At a target , the degree- local polynomial regression estimate minimizesand . Let have row
and let be diagonal with the kernel weights. Assume the local polynomial Gram matrix is positive definite. The weighted normal equations giveso it is a linear estimator in nonparametric regression.
and let be diagonal with the kernel weights. Assume the local polynomial Gram matrix is positive definite. The weighted normal equations giveso it is a linear estimator in nonparametric regression.
Now put . At and for the uniform kernel,For the usual bandwidth range , . The elementary power-sum formulas and show, for , thatThe limiting moment determinant isFor , the displayed errors can consume at most a fixed fraction of this value, sofor a universal and .
As printed, the claim “for all ” cannot hold for this design: if , all points receive weight , each , and the determinant is , not bounded below by a positive multiple of . The standard bandwidth restriction is therefore necessary for that intermediate assertion. The final bias bound remains harmless for , since and the finite design response means are uniformly bounded.
The polynomial reproduction property of local polynomial regression makes the local-linear weights reproduce both and . Writefor . The reproduced terms have zero bias. Using , the numerator contributed by the remainders is bounded byDivision by the determinant lower bound givesThe degree-zero Nadaraya–Watson estimator reproduces constants but not linear functions. The term therefore remains, and its boundary bias is bounded by ; this first-order boundary bias is the improvement that local linear fitting removes.