Excess ethanol drives a reversible ester exchange mainly through the actual mixture composition, not through a large new bond-energy advantage. The net reaction exchanges one ester and one alcohol for a closely related ester and alcohol. It preserves the main bond types and has no obvious large exothermicity. Solvation and ion pairing can contribute to its enthalpy, but there is no basis here for asserting a large negative standard reaction enthalpy.
There are two molecules on each side, so an increase in particle count is not the entropy explanation. Instead useWith ethanol as the solvent and little methanol initially, the reaction quotient is small; product formation and mixing lower the Gibbs free energy until the exchange equilibrium is reached. ethanol can be treated approximately as having fixed activity near its pure-solvent value, rather than assigned an arbitrarily enormous activity, while methanol remains dilute. This composition-dependent chemical-potential contribution is the appropriate entropic/mixing argument. It explains forward conversion under these conditions without claiming that must be positive, or that complete conversion follows without an equilibrium constant or removal of methanol.
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