Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2014 / iii / Paper 34 / 1

Put $Q(u)=\inf \{x\in \mathbb{R}:F(x)\ge u\}$ for $0<u<1$. This is the quantile function, rather than an ordinary inverse requiring strict increase. The limits of the distribution function at infinity make $Q(u)$ finite, and the fact that $F$ is a right-continuous function ensures $F(Q(u))\ge u$. ConsequentlyIncreasing $u$ shrinks the set in the infimum, so the quantile function is a monotone function. To prove the left continuity of the quantile function, fix $u$ and let $L={\sup }_{v<u}Q(v)\le Q(u)$. If $L<Q(u)$, choose $L<y<Q(u)$. Then $F(y)<u$, so some $v\in (F(y),u)$ satisfies $Q(v)>y$, a contradiction. Thus $Q(v)\uparrow Q(u)$ as $v\uparrow u$. At a flat stretch of the distribution function, the quantile function may jump immediately to the right, consistent with this left-continuous convention.

For the uniform order statistic, count the observations at most $u$. That count has the binomial distribution with parameters $n,u$, givingDifferentiating makes adjacent terms telescope: use $r\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{r}\right)=n\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n-1}{r-1}\right)$ and $(n-r)\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{r}\right)=n\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n-1}{r}\right)$. The probability density function is thereforeIn particular, $U_{(j)}$ has the Beta distribution with parameters $j,n-j+1$.

Write $m=Q(1/2)$ for the specified median. Continuity of the distribution function gives $F(m)=1/2$ and no mass at $m$, even if the distribution function has a flat stretch there. Thus $B={\sum }_i{1}_{\{X_i<m\}}$ has the binomial distribution with parameters $n,1/2$. Except on a null event, the order-statistic confidence interval for a median covers $m$ exactly when $j\le B\le n-j$. Symmetry of the binomial distribution makes its two failure probabilities equal. Alternatively, the probability integral transform givesHence the coverage is exactly $1-\alpha$, withThe asymmetric open/closed endpoint convention does not change the coverage because the continuous probability distribution assigns no mass to the median.