Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2016 / iii / Paper 211 / 4

A complete market can replicate every contingent claim in its specified payoff class: for every terminal ${\mathcal{F}}_T$-measurable payoff $X$, there is an admissible self-financing portfolio whose terminal wealth equals $X$ almost surely. Equivalently, in an arbitrage-free finite-state discrete-time model the equivalent martingale measure is unique. In notation,Market completeness is a replication property. The following price comparisons also use the usual absence of arbitrage, which the source leaves implicit: without it the initial cost of claim replication need not be unique. For example, in a deterministic one-period model with cash worth one at both dates and a stock worth one initially but zero finally, all terminal claims are replicable using cash. Adding any stock holding changes the initial cost without changing the terminal payoff. This is a complete model with arbitrage, so it has no well-defined unique replication price.

Under the usual no-arbitrage interpretation from part (a), let $Q^N$ be an equivalent martingale measure for the strictly positive numéraire $N$. Then $M_t=S_t/N_t$ is a martingale. Define the discounted European call option payoff $Y_t=(S_t-K{)}^{+}/N_t=(M_t-K/N_t{)}^{+}$. Because $N_{t+1}\ge N_t$ and $K>0$, we have $K/N_{t+1}\le K/N_t$. The conditional Jensen inequality therefore givesFor the middle step, the strike $K/N_t$ is fixed conditionally on ${\mathcal{F}}_t$; alternatively use $\mathbb{E}[X^{+}\mid {\mathcal{F}}_t]\ge \max \{\mathbb{E}[X\mid {\mathcal{F}}_t],0\}$. Thus $Y$ is a submartingale. Risk-neutral valuation in units of $N$ gives $C(T,K)=N_0{\mathbb{E}}^{Q^N}{Y}_T$, with the usual fixed initial prices. ConsequentlyThe source's word “increasing” means nondecreasing: a European call option can have zero payoff at successive maturities, so strict increase is not guaranteed. Integrability is understood in the claim class for which the stated replication prices exist.

Let $b$ and $h$ be the numbers of units of the numéraire and the stock in a replicating strategy. The two terminal payoffs of the European call option are $2$ and $0$, soSolving these simultaneous equations gives $b=-6/35$ and $h=8/35$. The initial replication cost isAs an independent pricing check, let $q$ be the risk-neutral probability of the state $(15,20)$ under the numéraire measure. The discounted stock must have initial value one and terminal mean one:Risk-neutral valuation then gives $10(3/7)(2/15)=4/7$. The physical probabilities $1/2,1/2$ are not the numéraire-measure probabilities.

The positive-part function is convex, so pathwise Jensen inequality givesTo compare the Asian option price with European call option prices at different dates, carry each earlier payoff forward using the numéraire. Purchase $1/T$ of each replicating strategy for maturity $t$, and, when its payoff is received, reinvest it in $N$ until $T$. This is a self-financing portfolio, with terminal wealthThe first inequality uses $N_T\ge N_t$ and nonnegative payoffs. Since the Asian option is replicable in the complete market, absence of arbitrage makes its replication cost no larger than this superhedging cost. ThereforeEquivalently, divide the first pathwise bound by $N_T$, use $(S_t-K{)}^{+}/N_T\le (S_t-K{)}^{+}/N_t$, and take expectations under the numéraire equivalent martingale measure. Merely averaging earlier payoffs without reinvestment would miss the difference in payment dates.