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Past exam of the options I course of the University of Oxford / 2013 / M / 1 / d / Solution

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Options I course of the University of Oxford Past exam of the options I course of the University of Oxford 2013 M 1 d
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Independent marking with probability 5/6 is Poisson thinning and gives a Poisson process of chip-buying arrivals, of rate 12(5/6)=10 per hour. Its first arrival time therefore satisfies
Tchips​∼Exp(10 per hour),ETchips​=101​ hour=6 minutes.​
(1)
For example, its survival probability is E[(1/6)N(t)]=exp(12t(1/6−1))=e−10t, which also derives the thinning conclusion directly.

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