The likelihood function for the ordered arrival times of a Poisson process, including the absence of further arrivals before , is
The arrival-time constraint does not depend on . Equivalently, the Poisson distribution of the total count gives , which differs by a parameter-independent factor. Conditional on the count, the Poisson process conditional arrival times have density , independent of . Thus the total count contains all the information about the rate when the exposure is known; it is a sufficient statistic.
For , the probability of one jump in each infinitesimal interval around and no other jump by time gives the joint density
for together with the event . Since
the conditional density is
on that ordered simplex.
Now independent uniform points on have joint density on the cube. Each ordered vector has permutations, so their order statistics have density on the same simplex. The densities agree, proving Poisson process conditional arrival times.
Condition on . By Poisson process conditional arrival times, the jump times are the ordered version of independent uniformly distributed on . The sum is symmetric in the marked pairs, and the marks are independent, so
Write the bracket as . Averaging over the Poisson distribution of gives
This is the exponential formula for a marked Poisson sum.
Poisson process Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A Homogeneous Poisson process models arrivals at a constant rate . Its counting process counts arrivals in , with . Its paths are right-continuous nondecreasing functions, take nonnegative integer values, and have unit jumps almost surely. The defining Poisson distribution of each increment is
It has stationary increments: the probability distribution above depends on the duration , not the starting time . It also has independent increments: counts in any finite collection of disjoint time intervals are independent random variables. Together these conditions specify the joint count laws, not merely the Poisson distribution at a single time.[ref]
The rate has units of arrivals per unit time; is dimensionless. The Poisson distribution gives
For a toy rate per minute and a duration of minutes, the expected value and variance of the count are both . The probability of no arrival is , and the probability of exactly three is . In two consecutive one-minute intervals, the probability of exactly two arrivals in the first and exactly one in the second is , using independent increments. These are exact model calculations with rounded decimals, not measured frequencies.
Figure 1.
Synthetic arrival times and their right-continuous counting path, compared with the exact mean at two arrivals per minute
. Details.
The diagram's nine hand-chosen arrivals illustrate a path; the line is an expected value, not a prescribed trajectory. Constant rate does not imply evenly spaced arrivals. Poisson interarrival times connect the count description to waiting, while Poisson thinning explains how independently routing arrivals produces separate streams. This makes the Poisson process useful as a simple arrival model for a queue, provided constant rate and independent increments are plausible. For a deterministic changing rate, use an Inhomogeneous Poisson process; bunching or history-dependent arrivals need additional assumptions. Conditional on , the arrival times are the order statistics of independent uniform distributions on , as developed in Poisson process conditional arrival times.