Iterated prisoner's dilemma 2026-10-14
The iterated prisoner's dilemma is a repeated game with a prisoner's dilemma at each round. Earlier choices can change later best responses: a present gain from defection may be outweighed by lost future cooperation. A pure strategy now specifies an action after every possible observed history, including histories that its own prescribed play would never reach. The horizon, observations, initial actions, and payoff convention must be specified before assessing a Nash equilibrium or subgame perfect equilibrium.
For the following worked example, repeat the prisoner's dilemma above infinitely at rounds . Assume public perfect monitoring: after each round both players observe both actions exactly, without error. They share a discount factor and evaluate a path of stage payoffs using the normalized discounted payoffThe round-zero weight is one before normalization, including when . A larger discount factor gives future payoffs more weight; the geometric series makes a constant stage payoff have the same normalized value. These assumptions and normalization follow [ref]
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-254-game-theory-with-engineering-applications-spring-2010/5a158a7558165d0e22b5b27fcfa01713_MIT6_254S10_lec15.pdf. Asu Ozdaglar, MIT 6.254, lecture 15, slides 6–15
. The numerical payoffs here are our example; the lecture uses a different table.Suppose both players use grim trigger: play initially and while every past action of both players was ; after any observed , play forever. With no unilateral deviation, each gets normalized payoff . A first unilateral deviation to earns now, then at most each round because the opponent switches permanently to always defect. The deviator attains that continuation payoff by choosing thereafter. At any history of mutual cooperation, the comparison is thereforeCooperation is a best response precisely whenEquivalently, without normalization the geometric series givesMultiplying both unnormalized payoffs by the same positive factor leaves the best response comparison unchanged.
Repeated prisoner's dilemma: normalized cooperation and first-deviation payoffs cross at discount factor one half
. Details. For example, with discount factor , the first unilateral deviation gives normalized payoff , so mutual grim trigger is not a Nash equilibrium. At , it gives , so cooperation is preferable. At the two payoffs tie: the incentive to cooperate is weak, which is sufficient for a subgame perfect equilibrium.
The punishment is credible after every history containing a defection: the opponent's pure strategy then prescribes forever, and remains the stage best response, earning rather than . Together with the cooperative-history comparison, this establishes mutual grim trigger as a subgame perfect equilibrium for . Delaying the first unilateral deviation merely delays the same gain or loss; further cooperation during punishment only lowers the deviator's payoff. Mutual always defect also remains a subgame perfect equilibrium, so patience permits cooperation without making it inevitable.
This calculation assumes an infinite horizon and ; it does not define a discounted payoff at . With a finite, commonly known final round and positive weight on each round, backward induction instead gives mutual defection in every round of this stage game. Observational errors change the model too: one mistaken defection permanently activates grim trigger. Historical dependence, initial memories, and the payoff time convention also affect whether a cooperative rule resists or invades other pure strategies; the existing reactive strategy and Tit for tat discussions concern those additional questions.
Nash equilibrium Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A Nash equilibrium is a strategy profile in which every player's strategy is a best response to the others. For a finite game and mixed strategies, its precise condition isThe opponents' strategies are held fixed while testing each unilateral deviation. Equality is allowed: a player may have other equally good best responses. Because expected payoff is a linear function of the player's own mixture, it suffices to test every pure strategy. Equivalently, every choice in the support of a mixed strategy must attain the largest pure-choice expected payoff, and no unused choice may exceed it.
The two worked examples illustrate different uses of this condition. Matching pennies has no pure strategy Nash equilibrium, but its unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium removes each player's vulnerability to predictable play. The asymmetric coordination example has three Nash equilibria, and its mixed one fails Pareto efficiency. A Nash equilibrium tests individual incentives, whereas Pareto efficiency compares feasible outcomes that may require several players to change together. In the prisoner's dilemma, for example, mutual defection is a Nash equilibrium even though mutual cooperation gives both players a larger payoff because .
Existence in a finite game is guaranteed by Nash's theorem. The theorem does not select one Nash equilibrium, promise Pareto efficiency, or assert convergence of a learning process. Nash's [ref] used the Kakutani fixed-point theorem; his [ref]
https://cs.uwaterloo.ca/~klarson/teaching/F04-886/papers/nash51.pdf. 1951 paper, section Existence of Equilibrium Points
gave a proof using the Brouwer fixed-point theorem. The connection to a fixed point captures the idea of choices that remain mutually optimal when considered together. Prisoner's dilemma 2026-10-14
Two people can each have a clear incentive to choose an outcome that leaves both worse off. The prisoner's dilemma isolates this tension between individual best responses and Pareto efficiency. For example, two partners can each save effort by withholding a promised contribution, yet both would prefer a successful joint project to mutual withholding. The model applies when each person's payoffs really have the ordering below; the names “cooperate” and “defect” alone do not establish a prisoner's dilemma.
In the symmetric two-player normal-form game, each player chooses cooperation or defection simultaneously, without observing the other's current choice. The four payoffs are the mutual-cooperation reward , mutual-defection punishment , sole-defector temptation , and sole-cooperator payoff , with . Defection is a strictly dominant strategy: it beats cooperation against either opposing pure strategy. This definition and the resulting one-shot Nash equilibrium are discussed in Steven Kuhn, Prisoner's Dilemma, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, section 1.
Take the concrete payoffs , , , . Each entry below gives the row player's payoff followed by the column player's payoff:
Prisoner's dilemma: best-response arrows lead to mutual defection despite the gains from mutual cooperation
. Details. For the row player, switching from to improves the payoff from to against , and from to against . The column player has the same comparisons, so is a strictly dominant strategy for each. Even against a mixed strategy choosing with probability , the expected payoff advantage is . Thus cooperation cannot appear with positive probability in a best response, and is the unique one-shot Nash equilibrium, including mixed strategies.
At , a unilateral deviation to lowers the deviator's payoff from to . A joint change to instead raises both payoffs from to : mutual cooperation Pareto dominates mutual defection, making the Nash equilibrium fail Pareto efficiency. A Nash equilibrium tests unilateral deviations, so it need not maximize shared gains. This is the useful lesson: improving the available outcome may require changing incentives, rather than telling each participant to choose a better best response.
The additional inequality says that mutual cooperation gives each player at least as much average payoff as equal-time alternation between the two asymmetric outcomes. It is a further assumption, not a consequence of . Here it holds strictly: , and alternating exploitation gives each player average payoff . This comparison concerns equal-time averages, not every discounted sequence. See Kuhn, section 3, on the additional cardinal-payoff condition.

