For independent exponential distributions with means and a nonconstant fixed design, put . The constrained maximum-likelihood estimate is and the profile log-likelihood is . Use the ancillary statistic to specify sample coordinates. At fixed , the Jacobian determinant , while . Therefore the modified profile likelihood satisfies
The adjustment is independent of . Keeping only the observed information adjustment would miss this cancellation.
For independent Inverse Gaussian distributions with shape and mean , the constrained and full nuisance maximum-likelihood estimates both equal , giving a unit sample-coordinate Jacobian determinant. The nuisance observed information there is . Hence subtracting half its logarithm from the profile log-likelihood replaces the coefficient of by . For a nonconstant sample the modified fit is .
Under the diagonal covariance restriction, the profile log-likelihood separates into terms,
Differentiating each term gives the restricted maximum-likelihood estimator . Both fitted trace terms equal , so the likelihood-ratio test statistic is
where is the sample correlation matrix. The statistic is nonnegative by the Hadamard inequality; large values indicate dependence. Equivalently, the likelihood ratio is and rejection is for small values of this ratio.
For fixed and a positive-definite true covariance, the Wilks theorem says that twice the maximized log-likelihood difference for nested regular models converges under the null to a chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the dimension difference. The unrestricted covariance has parameters and the restricted covariance has ; the unknown mean has the same parameters in both. Therefore the Gaussian covariance diagonality likelihood-ratio test of asymptotic level is
Within the multivariate normal distribution, diagonal covariance also means independent coordinates.
Partition the statistical parameter as , with of interest. For each fixed , maximize over the nuisance parameter to obtain . The profile likelihood and profile log-likelihood are
Their maximizer is the interest component of the joint maximum-likelihood estimator. At a regular nuisance maximum, and its negative Hessian matrix is the Schur complement
The profile likelihood ratio is unchanged by a one-to-one nuisance reparametrization, and transforms naturally under a one-to-one interest reparametrization. Under the regular conditions of Wilks theorem, has a limiting chi-squared distribution with dimension of degrees of freedom. Profiling is maximization, rather than integration or conditioning; need not be a normalized data density, and nuisance fitting can cause appreciable higher-order distortion.
The modified profile likelihood corrects for nuisance curvature and sample-coordinate distortion. In suitable coordinates , with an ancillary statistic, set
holding fixed when differentiating the data coordinates. Up to an interest-independent factor, the Barndorff-Nielsen modified profile likelihood is
Equivalently, implicit differentiation of the nuisance score equation gives , and
The semicolon denotes sample-coordinate differentiation, not a second parameter derivative. In orthogonal coordinates, the Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood uses the information adjustment alone; it agrees with this modification when , as happens below.
For the Inverse Gaussian distribution, write , and . Terms independent of both parameters can be absorbed into , giving
The nuisance score function is
It is positive below and negative above it. Thus its global maximum is
independent of . Put . Then
The nuisance observed information at this fit is
Since the constrained nuisance estimator is literally the full nuisance estimator as a function of the data, in the specified sample coordinates. Hence the modified profile likelihood for inverse Gaussian shape is
For and a nonconstant positive sample, the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality gives . The corresponding fits are and . A constant sample has and no finite profile maximum; under continuous independent sampling this event has probability zero when . In particular, the modified coefficient accounts for the fitted mean nuisance parameter.
For an interest parameter and nuisance parameter , the profile likelihood is , where maximizes the likelihood at fixed . Its maximum occurs at the joint maximum-likelihood estimate of . It preserves the optimized likelihood ratios for different interest values and is unchanged by one-to-one reparametrization of the nuisance at each fixed . It generally is neither a marginal sampling density nor a conditional likelihood, and eliminating nuisance parameters by maximization can introduce appreciable small-sample distortion. Differentiating the constrained score equation gives the curvature formula
at a joint stationary point. The corresponding expected-information expression is the efficient information for the interest parameter. Under the regular conditions of Wilks theorem, twice the profile log-likelihood drop has an asymptotic chi-squared distribution with the dimension of the interest parameter as its degrees of freedom.
For scalar nuisance, the Barndorff-Nielsen modified profile likelihood may be written
where the sample-coordinate derivative holds and the ancillary statistic fixed. For vector nuisance the last two quantities are determinants. An equivalent form is , since differentiating the constrained nuisance score gives . The semicolon denotes differentiation in sample coordinates, not another ordinary parameter derivative. This Jacobian determinant adjustment is essential to the definition.
In the present model set
The log-likelihood is . Consequently
The profile score is , and its derivative is . The expression in parentheses is the variance of the fixed design values under positive weights proportional to . Thus the profile log-likelihood is strictly concave for a nonconstant design. Its score changes from to as goes from to , giving a unique finite fit. If all coincide, only the mean is identifiable and inference on alone is not defined; that exceptional design must be excluded.
The specified ancillary coordinates give . At fixed , therefore,
Meanwhile the constrained observed information is
Substitution proves
Equivalently the sample derivative of the nuisance score is , which equals at the constrained fit and gives the same cancellation. Thus the modified profile likelihood for exponential regression is proportional to the ordinary profile likelihood. This conclusion uses the given ancillary; no proof of its ancillarity is required.
Partition a regular parameter as , with interest and nuisance . Orthogonal statistical parameters have zero cross-block of expected Fisher information,
This may hold at one parameter value or throughout a parametrization. It is expected-information orthogonality, and does not generally force the observed information cross-block to vanish in each sample.
First, the asymptotic covariance of the joint maximum-likelihood estimator is the inverse information. Orthogonality makes this matrix block diagonal, giving first-order asymptotic independence of interest and nuisance fits. The efficient information with unknown nuisance is
For orthogonal parameters it equals . Thus estimating the nuisance creates no first-order information loss relative to knowing it, at the orthogonal point. This is a local asymptotic statement, not a general finite-sample independence theorem.
Second, orthogonality stabilizes constrained nuisance estimates. Differentiating gives
When the expected cross-information vanishes, regular sampling fluctuations give and . The derivative is therefore locally. Changing the interest parameter by changes its constrained nuisance fit by only , smaller than the ordinary nuisance estimation error. This reduces sensitivity to how the nuisance is fitted and simplifies higher-order likelihood adjustments.
For scalar interest, local orthogonal nuisance reparametrization can often be constructed explicitly. Keep and write the original nuisance as . The transformed interest score is . Its covariance with the new nuisance score vanishes when
With smooth nonsingular nuisance information, this ordinary differential equation has a local solution for suitable initial nuisance coordinates. For several interest coordinates the corresponding equations need compatibility conditions; global orthogonality is not automatic.
The normal model gives a transparent example. For independent observations with mean and variance , direct score expectations give
The cross-information is zero because the centered normal third moment is zero. When fitting at fixed ,
so the change is indeed quadratic in a local change of the mean.
Orthogonality is also useful for removing nuisance effects beyond first order. Take variance as interest and mean as nuisance. Put . The profile log-likelihood is up to a constant. The constrained mean is for all , so its sample-coordinate Jacobian determinant is one, and . The information adjustment gives
This agrees with the exact likelihood based on : estimating the mean has used one degree of freedom. In this setting the Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood has the same form. The exact distribution follows by projecting the centered normal vector onto the -dimensional subspace orthogonal to the constant vector; an orthonormal basis there supplies independent standard normal coordinates whose squares sum to .
The example shows both the benefit and the limits. Orthogonality organizes first-order precision and nuisance stability; it does not eliminate all higher-order nuisance effects. Nor does it identify an ancillary statistic or justify dropping the sample-coordinate factor in every modified profile likelihood. In the exponential regression calculation that factor cancels the information adjustment, so an information-only correction would give a different answer.
For a regular two-parameter exponential family, condition on the sample mean of the nuisance canonical statistic. Exponential tilting to its observed value and the saddlepoint density approximation give a nuisance-statistic density proportional to times its large-deviation exponential. Dividing the joint likelihood by this density gives the profile log-likelihood plus the displayed adjustment, up to a data-only constant. The sign is positive. This construction assumes an interior saddle with positive curvature and a sufficiently regular nonlattice density; conditioning on a lattice statistic requires the corresponding mass approximation.