RNA melting log-odds plot

An RNA melting log-odds plot graphs the natural logarithm of the unfolded-to-folded population ratio against reciprocal absolute temperature. For $0<f_U<1$, let $y=\ln [f_U/(1-f_U)]$ and $x=1/T$. An ideal unimolecular two-state RNA melting model with temperature-independent unfolding enthalpy and entropy predictsThe slope is $-\Delta H_u/R$; the intercept is $\Delta S_u/R$. The equation is a testable model relation, not a reason to treat every transformed optical curve as linear.

For an original worked example, stipulate unfolded fractions 0.20 at $300\mathrm{K}$ and 0.50 at $320\mathrm{K}$. Their log-odds are $-\ln 4$ and 0, givingThe fitted enthalpy is approximately $55.3\mathrm{kJ}\mathrm{mo}{\mathrm{l}}^{-1}$, and the model predicts $f_U\approx 0.773$ at $340\mathrm{K}$. A third measurement tests this prediction; two chosen points always determine a line.

The transformation also changes the noise. First-order uncertainty propagation gives an RNA melting log-odds uncertaintyFor the same small standard uncertainty $u_f=0.001$, this gives $u_y\approx 0.004$ at $f_U=0.5$, but approximately 0.101 at $f_U=0.01$. Thus equal uncertainty in population fractions produces heteroscedasticity in the transformed data; unweighted linear regression can overemphasize unreliable endpoint values. Exactly 0 or 1 cannot be transformed, and replacing them with arbitrary small offsets manufactures finite values.^[ref]

Fractions inferred from absorbance also inherit the fitted RNA melting baselines. Optical-melting thermodynamics depends on this modeling step.^[ref] Curvature may motivate testing baseline errors, additional states or changes in heat capacity; the plot alone does not identify which explanation is correct.

RNA melting log-odds uncertainty quantifies uncertainty in $y=\ln [f_U/(1-f_U)]$, the transformed population used in an RNA melting log-odds plot. It depends on the unfolded fraction $f_U$ as well as its uncertainty. The transformation becomes particularly sensitive near 0 and 1.

For a sufficiently concentrated uncertainty distribution within $0<f_U<1$, first-order uncertainty propagation givesWith an original stipulated $u_f=0.010$, the standard uncertainty is 0.040 at $f_U=0.50$ but approximately 0.510 at $f_U=0.02$. Equal population uncertainties do not justify equal statistical treatment of transformed observations.^[ref]

Nonlinearity also creates asymmetry. At $f_U=0.02$, $y\approx -3.892$. Changing the fraction to 0.01 gives $y\approx -4.595$, while changing it to 0.03 gives $y\approx -3.476$: equal changes in fraction produce unequal transformed changes. These are deterministic perturbations, not asserted confidence limits. If the uncertainty materially reaches 0 or 1, the linear approximation needs reconsideration; taking the logarithm of those endpoints is undefined.

The underlying RNA melting baselines can induce shared errors across temperatures. For an optical mixture with $A_F<A<A_U$,soThese derivatives propagate the joint uncertainty of the measured absorbance and fitted baselines. Reusing baseline parameters for many observations creates RNA log-odds covariance; merely assigning separate error bars does not remove it.

A fit can model the original absorbance observations and their RNA melting baselines, or handle the transformed data with an appropriate joint error model. Optical curves are fitted quantities in primary melting analyses, rather than direct counts of unfolded molecules.^[ref] Precision in a fitted straight line cannot establish the correctness of the two-state RNA melting model used to interpret it.

RNA log-odds covariance describes correlated errors between transformed population estimates at different temperatures in an RNA melting log-odds plot. Shared RNA melting baselines can generate it even when individual detector readings are independent.

Let $f_i$ be unfolded fractions and $y_i=\ln [f_i/(1-f_i)]$. First-order propagation givesIn matrix form, $C_y\approx J{C}_f{J}^{\mathsf{T}}$ with diagonal $J_{ii}=1/[f_i(1-f_i)]$. This is the multivariate form of RNA melting log-odds uncertainty; the derivatives are evaluated at the estimated fractions.^[ref]

A concrete shared-input model uses $y_i=\ln (A_i-A_{F,i})-\ln (A_{U,i}-A_i)$. If all folded-state predictions contain the same uncertain offset $a$, thenThis component has one shared error direction. It is not equivalent to adding independent noise with variance $g_i^2{u}_a^2$ to every observation. Other baseline parameters contribute through RNA baseline prediction covariance.

For an original simplified example, nine observations each have independent log-odds standard uncertainty0.03 and the same shared-offset contribution 0.01. The standard uncertainty of their mean isIncorrectly treating the shared term as independent would give $\sqrt{(0.03^2+0.01^2)/9}\approx 0.0105$. Repetition reduces the independent component while leaving this common offset contribution intact.

A model fit can use the joint covariance matrix in generalized least squares, with an objective of the form $r^{\mathsf{T}}{C}_y^{-1}r$ when that inverse exists. Alternatively, fit the underlying absorbance and baseline parameters jointly. Shared-error components alone may be singular, and near population endpoints the logarithmic linearization may fail. A precise straight-line fit does not independently validate the two-state RNA melting model or its baseline assumptions.