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The local-density prediction for twin primes is the displayed asymptotic, with the twin-prime constant $C_2$. It is stronger than infinitude alone. The Selberg sieve proves the correct order of magnitude as an upper bound, but the parity problem in sieve theory prevents its elementary majorant from proving this conjectured asymptotic.

// Target: analytic-number-theory.bigb

Divisibility information by small primes cannot by itself reliably distinguish integers with an odd or even total number of prime factors. Consequently an upper-bound Selberg sieve can bound prime pairs and related sifted sets but does not supply a positive lower bound or the conjectured twin-prime asymptotic. This limitation concerns the information available to the sieve, not merely a choice of weight normalization.

// Target: number-theory.bigb

The Selberg upper-bound sieve replaces the indicator function of a sifted set by the square of a divisor sum. If the real Selberg sieve weights satisfy ${\lambda }_1=1$, thenWhen $F(n)$ has no forbidden prime factors, the divisor sum is exactly one; otherwise its square is still nonnegative. Taking the weights to vanish for $d>z$ controls the error in summing this majorant. The main term is a positive quadratic form that can be diagonalized and minimized explicitly. This optimization, together with a bound for the remainder, is the central idea of the Selberg sieve.

For twin primes, take $F(n)=n(n+2)$ and let $\rho (d)$ be the number of its roots modulo a squarefree integer $d$. The Chinese remainder theorem makes $\rho$ a multiplicative arithmetic function, with $\rho (2)=1$ and $\rho (p)=2$ for odd primes. Thus the polynomial root density in a sieve is $g(d)=\rho (d)/d$, andSumming the majorant giveswhere $Q(\lambda )={\sum }_{d,e\le z}{\lambda }_d{\lambda }_{e}g([d,e])$, with all indices squarefree. Here $\rho ([d,e])\le \rho (d)\rho (e)$ controls the error.

We carry out the Selberg sieve diagonalization. PutFor squarefree integers $d,e$, multiplicativity givesThe identity behind the first equality is ${\prod }_{p\mid (d,e)}[1+h(p)]=1/g((d,e))$. Möbius inversion gives ${\lambda }_1={\sum }_r\mu (r)y_r=1$. The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality therefore impliesDefine $G(z)={\sum }_{r\le z,r\text{ squarefree}}1/h(r)$. Equality is attained at $y_r=\mu (r)/(h(r)G(z))$, giving $\min Q=1/G(z)$. Inverting again, the optimizing Selberg sieve weights areIn particular ${\lambda }_1=1$. Since $G_d(z/d)\le G(z)$,The last inequality holds separately at $p=2$, $p=3$, and $p\ge 5$. Together with $\rho (d)\le d$, this crude bound already makes the remainder $O(z^6)$, because ${\sum }_{d\le z}{d}^2=O(z^3)$.

We also need a lower bound for $G(z)$; we prove it rather than presuppose a sieve asymptotic. For odd squarefree integers $r$,where $\omega (r)$ counts distinct prime factors. Put $y=\sqrt{z}$ and $L(y)={\sum }_{a\le y,a\text{ odd}}1/a=\frac{1}{2}\log y+O(1)$. The total weight $1/(ab)$ of odd pairs $a,b\le y$ is $L(y{)}^2$. Exclude pairs for which $a$ has a square prime factor, $b$ has a square prime factor, or $a,b$ have a common prime factor. For each of these three categories the total weight is at most $L(y{)}^2{\sum }_{p\text{ odd}}{p}^{-2}$: for example, the weighted count of odd multiples of $p^2$ is $p^{-2}L(y/p^2)\le p^{-2}L(y)$, and the common-factor category uses $p^{-1}L(y/p)$ for each variable. Moreover,Hence the remaining odd coprime squarefree pairs have weight at least $L(y{)}^2/6$. Their products $r=ab\le z$ are squarefree, and $2^{\omega (r)}$ counts all ordered coprime factorizations of $r$. This proves the elementary lower bound for the twin-prime sieve denominator:

If $p>z$ and both $p,p+2$ are primes, $F(p)$ survives the sieve. The at most $z$ smaller values are the only exceptions. Thus, with $T(x)=\#\{p\le x:p,p+2\text{ prime}\}$ and $z=x^{1/10}$, the twin-prime upper bound from a quadratic sieve becomesFinally partial summation givesThe integral over $[3,\infty )$ is bounded by a constant times ${\int }_3^{\infty }dt/(t(\log t{)}^2)<\infty$. The nonnegative partial sums are therefore bounded and increasing. Thus the reciprocal series over the smaller members of twin-prime pairs converges, a form of Brun's theorem. The upper bound does not assert that infinitely many twin primes exist.

Let $T(N)$ count pairs $n,n+2$ both prime with $n+2\le N$. The Selberg sieve replaces primality by the necessary condition that the polynomial $F(n)=n(n+2)$ have no small prime divisor. Its strength is a nonnegative quadratic majorant with optimizable divisor weights; its limitation is that a sifted integer need not be prime.

For a prime $p$, let $\nu (p)$ count the forbidden residues of $n$ modulo $p$. We have $\nu (2)=1$, since the two roots coincide modulo two, and $\nu (p)=2$ for every odd prime, where the roots are zero and $-2$. The Chinese remainder theorem makes $\nu (d)$ multiplicative on squarefree integers. With $g(d)=\nu (d)/d$,These local densities constitute the sieve distribution for the twin-prime problem. Since ${\sum }_{p\le z}g(p)=2\log \log z+O(1)$, it is a dimension-two sieve, which is why the expected upper bound has two logarithms in the denominator.

Let $P(R)={\prod }_{p\le R}p$ and choose real Selberg sieve weights ${\lambda }_d$ supported on squarefree $d\le R$, with ${\lambda }_1=1$. If $\gcd (F(n),P(R))=1$, the only supported divisor of $F(n)$ is one. HenceExpanding and using the distribution of the polynomial roots givesHere $[d,e]$ denotes the least common multiple. The divisor-square support reaches $R^2$, although each individual weight is supported only to $R$; keeping these two levels distinct is essential for estimating the remainder.

The Selberg sieve diagonalization solves the main-term minimization exactly. On squarefree integers putMultiplicativity givesAlso, Möbius inversion gives ${\sum }_{r\le R}\mu (r)Y_r={\lambda }_1=1$. Therefore the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality proveswith equality at $Y_r=\mu (r)w(r)/G(R)$. Inverting the divisor sums gives the optimizing weightsIn particular ${\lambda }_1=1$ and $Q(\lambda )=1/G(R)$.

These weights have $|{\lambda }_d|\le 1$, which supplies a simple rigorous remainder estimate. Indeed, multiply the inner sum by ${\prod }_{p\mid d}(1-g(p){)}^{-1}={\sum }_{e\mid d}w(e)$. The terms are $w(em)$ for distinct squarefree integers $em\le R$ with $e\mid d$ and $(m,d)=1$, hence form a subset of the sum defining $G(R)$. Since $\nu ([d,e])\le \nu (d)\nu (e)$ and $\nu (d)\le \tau (d)$,Thus

For this sieve $w(2)=1$ and $w(p)=2/(p-2)$ for odd primes. Here is a direct proof that $G(R)\asymp {\log }^{2}R$, sufficient for the upper bound. PutThe Mertens theorem for reciprocal primes implies $W(z)\asymp {\log }^{2}z$, by taking logarithms and using the convergence of ${\sum }_{p}g(p{)}^2$. Give each divisor $d\mid P(z)$ probability $w(d)/W(z)$. Its expected logarithm isby the Mertens first theorem. With $z=R^{1/8}$ this is at most $\frac{1}{3}\log R$ for large $R$. The Markov inequality shows that at least two thirds of the total product weight has $d\le R$. These terms occur in $G(R)$, so $G(R)\gg W(R^{1/8})\gg {\log }^{2}R$. Conversely $G(R)\le W(R)\ll {\log }^{2}R$, proving the claim without treating an untruncated Euler product as a truncated divisor sum.

Choose, for example, $R=N^{1/4}$. Any twin-prime pair with smaller member greater than $R$ survives this sieve; pairs with smaller member at most $R$ contribute at most $O(R)$. ConsequentlyThe chosen level is deliberately enough to prove the correct logarithmic order; sharper level and remainder analyses improve the numerical upper-bound constant.

The local correction factor also explains the conjectured main-term constant. Relative to two independent primality conditions, the singular series isThe twin-prime constant $C_2$ is positive and convergent because its logarithm has an absolutely convergent tail. The factor two at $p=2$ records that only one parity is allowed, while each odd-prime factor records the two distinct forbidden residues. The Hardy–Littlewood twin-prime asymptotic conjecture predictsThis is a conjecture, not a consequence of the upper-bound calculation.

The parity problem in sieve theory is the obstruction to reversing the argument. The nonnegative square majorizes all survivors, including composites with sufficiently large prime factors; small-divisor information does not isolate the desired prime-factor parity or force both factors to be prime. Therefore the Selberg sieve establishes the correct upper-bound scale and the arithmetic local factors, but by itself does not prove a positive lower bound for twin primes, their infinitude, or the conjectured asymptotic.

Let $A(x)$ count primes $p\le x$ for which $p+2$ is also prime. We prove $A(x)\ll x/{\log }^{2}x$ using a quadratic Selberg sieve, then apply Abel summation.

For $F(n)=n(n+2)$, each odd prime has exactly two roots modulo that prime. The Chinese remainder theorem gives the polynomial root density in a sievefor odd squarefree integers $d$. Put $R=x^{1/8}$ and choose the optimizing real Selberg sieve weights ${\lambda }_d$, supported on these $d\le R$, with ${\lambda }_1=1$. If $p,p+2$ are prime and $p>R$, their weight $({\sum }_{d\mid F(p)}{\lambda }_d{)}^2$ is one. It is nonnegative for every other integer. Expanding the square therefore givesThe Selberg sieve diagonalization makes the main quadratic form $1/J(R)$, whereThe optimal Selberg weights have modulus at most one. Since ${\rho }_F([d,e])\le [d,e]\le R^2$, the remainder is at most $O(R^4)$.

For completeness, the lower bound on $J$ is where the second logarithm enters. Restrict to primes $3\le p\le y=R^{1/8}$ and put $k(p)=2/(p-2)$. The full product $W={\prod }_{3\le p\le y}(1+k(p))$ is $\asymp {\log }^{2}y$, since its logarithm is $2{\sum }_{3\le p\le y}1/p+O(1)$ and the Mertens second theorem applies. Give the associated squarefree divisor $d$ probability $k(d)/W$. Prime inclusion probabilities are $2/p$, so the Mertens first theorem givesfor large $R$. The Markov inequality shows that at least half the weight has $d\le R$. This proves the truncated Euler-product lower bound $J(R)\gg W\gg {\log }^{2}R$. Consequently the twin-prime upper bound from a quadratic sieve isFinally, Abel summation givesThe tail is dominated by ${\int }_3^{\infty }dt/(t{\log }^{2}t)<\infty$. Thus reciprocal-sum convergence from a counting bound proves convergence of the first reciprocal sum. The second is smaller termwise. We have proved Brun's theorem:Counting each twin prime just once changes at most a finite repetition and gives the same conclusion.

Take sieve level $D=x^{1/3}$ and coefficient cutoff $L=\sqrt{D}=x^{1/6}$. Let $\mathcal{P}$ be the finite set of odd primes at most $L$. Give $n=p+2$ one unit of weight for each prime $p\le x$. For an odd squarefree integer $d$ on these primes, the sieve distribution isThe residue $-2$ is coprime to every such $d$, and $g(p)=1/(p-1)\in (0,1)$ for all permitted primes. Values of $g$ outside the permitted set can be chosen arbitrarily in $(0,1)$ at primes and extended multiplicatively on squarefree integers.

For the Selberg sieve normalizing sum, $k(p)=g(p)/(1-g(p))=1/(p-2)$ andHere is a direct proof of this lower bound. Restrict the Euler product to $3\le p\le y=L^{1/4}$. The Mertens first theorem gives ${\sum }_{3\le p\le y}\log p/(p-1)=\log y+O(1)$, which is at most $\frac{1}{2}\log L$ for large $L$. The Mertens second theorem givesThe truncated Euler-product lower bound, with $\theta =1/2$, now gives $J\ge W/2\gg \log L$.

Use the minimizing Selberg sieve weights from Question 3. Their absolute values are at most one, so the Selberg least-common-multiple weights satisfy $|{\lambda }_d|\le 3^{\omega (d)}$. Parts (a) and (b) control the remainder:The first factor uses the Bombieri–Vinogradov theorem; $D=x^{1/3}$ is below $x^{1/2}/{\log }^{B}x$ for all sufficiently large $x$. The second uses the permitted ${\sum }_{q\le D}{9}^{\omega (q)}/\varphi (q)\ll {\log }^{9}D$. The PDF has the exponent nine, which the TeX transcribes incorrectly. Choose $A=14$ to obtain $O(x/{\log }^{3}x)$.

Every twin prime pair with $p+2>L$ survives the finite sieve, while the pairs with $p+2\le L$ number at most $L$. The Selberg upper-bound sieve thus givesTherefore the twin-prime count is $O(x/{\log }^{2}x)$. The finite cutoff on the forbidden primes is essential: sieving by all odd primes would also discard the large prime values $p+2$ that we are trying to count.

For a finite set of primes choose $0<g(p)<1$, put $k(p)=g(p)/(1-g(p))$, and let $W={\prod }_p(1+k(p))$. Give each squarefree integer $d$ on these primes probability $k(d)/W$. Inclusion of each prime is represented by a Bernoulli random variable with parameter $g(p)$; these are independent random variables, so $\mathbb{E}[\log d]={\sum }_{p}g(p)\log p$. If this is at most $\theta \log L$ with $0<\theta <1$, the Markov inequality givesThis turns a full Euler product into a lower bound for the truncated normalizing sum of a Selberg sieve.

The conjecture asserts that infinitely many prime numbers $p$ have $p+2$ prime. The Hardy–Littlewood twin-prime asymptotic conjecture predicts their quantitative frequency and is stronger. The Selberg sieve supplies an upper bound of the predicted order but does not prove infinitude.

This positive convergent product corrects for the dependence of primality of $n$ and $n+2$ at each odd prime. The associated singular series is $2C_2$: the factor at two is two, and at an odd prime the local correction is $(1-2/p)/(1-1/p{)}^2$. It appears in the Hardy–Littlewood twin-prime asymptotic conjecture and in upper bounds from the Selberg sieve.

// Target: analytic-number-theory.bigb