Set and draw independently of future Brownian increments. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is then a strictly stationary process, with
Every time has the same normal distribution, and the covariance function depends only on the time lag. For a Gaussian process these properties also make all its finite-dimensional distributions invariant under a common time shift. The stationary distribution balances the continual random forcing against the contracting drift.[ref]
With a fixed , the covariance function instead is
In particular, it is zero when , since the initial value has no uncertainty. The second term records the fixed start; it is the general scaling of the zero-start Ornstein-Uhlenbeck covariance. The pure exponential covariance function displayed above assumes stationary initialization. For a fixed start, that function emerges as the late-time limit at fixed lag, while the one-time probability distributions approach by convergence in distribution.
For the stipulated , , , stationary initialization has variance one from the outset. Its autocorrelation is , so the correlation time is one: a lag of one reduces the autocorrelation to . Its raw second moment includes the squared expected value; it must not be confused with the covariance.
Figure 1.
Simulated stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck samples and analytic covariance compared with a fixed start
. Details.
The upper panel shows three simulated sequences with independent stationary initial values and exact transitions at spacing . Joining their points only guides the eye; it does not simulate a continuous sample path between those points. The lower panel shows analytic covariance functions: the stationary curve and, for comparison, for fixed initialization at two different ages . These are simulated samples and model curves, not measured trajectories or empirical covariance estimates.
For a fixed initial value , the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process has the normal distribution
The two parameters of are the expected value and variance, not the standard deviation. At the variance is zero and the value is fixed. More generally, its transition kernel over any interval of length has conditional expected value and conditional variance when the current value is . The coefficients depend on elapsed time; the initial probability distribution determines whether the resulting stochastic process is stationary.[ref]
In the stipulated example , , , , the expected value at time two is and the variance is . The initial distance from two has fallen by a factor , but the standard deviation has grown to about . Approaching the reference level in expected value is compatible with growing uncertainty from a perfectly known initial value.
Figure 1.
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck transition densities, mean relaxation and variance growth from a fixed initial value
. Details.
The solid probability density functions use times , and ; the dashed curve is the limiting normal distribution with expected value two and variance one. The curves are exact model predictions. There is no ordinary density for the fixed value at time zero.
A short derivation uses the integrating factor . The Itô product rule gives , hence
The stochastic integral has zero expected value. The Itô isometry gives its variance as . Its deterministic integrand makes it a Gaussian random variable, yielding the displayed normal distribution. Shifting the integration interval gives the same transition kernel from any later time.