For independent identically distributed random variables, the tail-sum formula applied to shows that for every when the first absolute moment is infinite. The Borel-Cantelli second lemma, followed by a countable intersection over positive integer , gives the first limsup assertion.
If had finite limsup along such a sample path, it would eventually be bounded by some finite constant . Then would imply eventually, a contradiction. This is a necessary-integrability counterpart to the strong law of large numbers; without a finite first absolute moment, the normalized sums cannot converge to any finite value.
Infinitely many heads as a tail event 2026-10-14
On , the event of infinitely many heads isIt says that after every index there is another head. For each , the same intersection can start at , so ; therefore is a tail event. This verifies measurability directly using countable unions and intersections.
A finite prefix admits both infinitely many heads and only finitely many heads
. The two illustrated extensions have the same initial observations. An alternating continuation belongs to the tail event of infinitely many heads; an all-tails continuation does not. Changing the highlighted finite prefix cannot change that infinite property, but it can change the exact first-head time. Details.Assume now that the coordinates are fair independent Bernoulli trials. For fixed , let be the event of at least one head among . Its complement requires tails, soThe last equality follows from continuity of probability. Now , a countable intersection of almost sure events, and hence . This determines which of the two possibilities in Kolmogorov's zero–one law occurs. Equivalently, the Borel-Cantelli second lemma applies to the independent events .
Nevertheless, no finite prefix certifies membership in : every finite record can be extended by all tails or by alternating heads and tails. Under the fair independent model, conditioning on any exact finite prefix leaves , since is independent of the initial sigma-algebra. The excluded all-tails continuation has probability zero, but remains a possible member of the sample space. Logical determination by a finite record and a conclusion holding almost surely are different statements.
For each positive integer , the events are independent and have divergent total probability by part (i). The Borel-Cantelli second lemma makes them occur infinitely often. Taking the countable intersection over givesIf were finite along any such sample path, then for some finite path-dependent , eventually. But would give eventually, a contradiction. ThereforeThis is the divergence of normalized iid partial sums without a first absolute moment.
The Borel-Cantelli second lemma says that independent events whose probabilities have divergent sum occur infinitely often almost surely. The events here are independent and have probabilities . Their sum diverges by the harmonic series, so
For events , the Borel-Cantelli first lemma states that implies . Indeed,These unions decrease to , so continuity from above proves the assertion.
The Borel-Cantelli second lemma states that independent events with satisfy . For every fixed , independence and giveContinuity from above shows there is probability zero of no event after . A countable union over gives probability zero of only finitely many occurrences. Independence is needed for this second conclusion, but not for the first.
Let . These events are independent and . By the Borel-Cantelli second lemma, they occur infinitely often almost surely.
If had any finite sample-path limit, thenBut on , is either or , contradicting this convergence infinitely often. Therefore the averages have no finite almost sure limit. This is a rare-jump counterexample to a strong law with convergent first-moment averages.
Both colour counts tend to infinity almost surely. For example, , and independent events occur infinitely often by the Borel-Cantelli second lemma, forcing infinitely many blue additions.
The martingale increment formula gives . Conditional orthogonality of later increments and implyOn the squared difference is , so its conditional probability is at most . Dominated convergence proves zero probability of that endpoint. The symmetric argument for red excludes . No explicit beta law is needed for this proof.
Take independent random variables equal to and with probability each, and otherwise equal to one. Their first absolute deviations are , so in L1 convergence. The same triangle-inequality argument gives convergence in of their arithmetic averages to one. For , however, .
The exceptional jumps occur infinitely often almost surely by the Borel-Cantelli second lemma, since . If the arithmetic averages converged to any finite value along a sample path, then would tend to zero. At each exceptional jump its magnitude is at least one. Thus the averages have no finite almost sure limit. Independence and convergence of first-moment averages do not alone give a strong law of large numbers.
