Set and draw independently of future Brownian increments. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is then a strictly stationary process, with
Every time has the same normal distribution, and the covariance function depends only on the time lag. For a Gaussian process these properties also make all its finite-dimensional distributions invariant under a common time shift. The stationary distribution balances the continual random forcing against the contracting drift.[ref]
With a fixed , the covariance function instead is
In particular, it is zero when , since the initial value has no uncertainty. The second term records the fixed start; it is the general scaling of the zero-start Ornstein-Uhlenbeck covariance. The pure exponential covariance function displayed above assumes stationary initialization. For a fixed start, that function emerges as the late-time limit at fixed lag, while the one-time probability distributions approach by convergence in distribution.
For the stipulated , , , stationary initialization has variance one from the outset. Its autocorrelation is , so the correlation time is one: a lag of one reduces the autocorrelation to . Its raw second moment includes the squared expected value; it must not be confused with the covariance.
Figure 1.
Simulated stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck samples and analytic covariance compared with a fixed start
. Details.
The upper panel shows three simulated sequences with independent stationary initial values and exact transitions at spacing . Joining their points only guides the eye; it does not simulate a continuous sample path between those points. The lower panel shows analytic covariance functions: the stationary curve and, for comparison, for fixed initialization at two different ages . These are simulated samples and model curves, not measured trajectories or empirical covariance estimates.
. The exponential covariance function gives a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. At a small lag ,
The variance of a difference quotient therefore diverges as , so the process has no mean-square derivative. Its continuous version has rough, nondifferentiable paths, matching the jagged P2 trace in the original PDF.
For , the condition from part a becomes
It holds for arbitrary positive time gaps exactly when . The resulting exponential covariance function is the covariance of a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, hence has the Markov property.
Writing , the predictive law is
As , , so the predictive mean tends to the stationary mean and the predictive variance tends to the stationary variance .
Put and retain , which equals one for the stated exponential covariance function. The covariance matrix of is
Conditioning a multivariate normal distribution and simplifying gives
The absence of from both conditional moments shows that and are conditionally independent given . Equivalently, the exponential-kernel Gaussian process is the stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which is Markov.