 Covariance function

For a real-valued stochastic process $(X_t)$ with finite second moments, write $m(t)=\mathbb{E}{X}_t$. Its covariance function isThe diagonal gives the variance at each time; off-diagonal values record linear dependence between times. For the independent standard normal random variables above, $C_X(m,n)=1_{\{m=n\}}$, whereas the shared Gaussian process $Y_n=Z$ has $C_Y(m,n)=1$ for all $m,n$. For a fair simple random walk on the integer line, $C(m,n)=\min (m,n)$; Brownian motion has the continuous-time counterpart $C(s,t)=\min (s,t)$. These formulas quantify how much random history the observations share.

Every covariance function is a positive-semidefinite kernel. Indeed, for any real coefficients $a_1,\dots ,a_k$,Thus a proposed covariance function must make every finite covariance matrix positive semidefinite. For a Gaussian process, the mean function and the covariance function determine every finite-dimensional distribution, including degenerate ones such as the shared process. Conversely, any real positive-semidefinite kernel satisfying $C(s,t)=C(t,s)$, together with a specified mean function, defines consistent multivariate normal distributions; the Kolmogorov extension theorem then constructs a Gaussian process. For a general stochastic process, covariance alone does not determine the full law. The exceptional completeness of this description is what makes Gaussian process regression possible with a mean and a covariance model.

The covariance function, also known as the covariance kernel in the context of stochastic processes, describes how two random variables or functions are related to each other in terms of their joint variability. Specifically, it quantifies the degree to which two variables change together.