Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 31 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write and . Treat the nonnegative plant weights as independent marks conditional on the locations, with a measurable mark law depending only on . Its first and second moments areThis is the independent-marking interpretation appropriate for location-dependent weights.
The general results needed are the following. The Independent marking theorem for Poisson point processes says that such marks turn a Poisson point process of intensity into a Poisson point process on location-mark space with intensity . The Campbell first-moment formula says that for any nonnegative measurable , , allowing infinite values. The second Poisson factorial moment measure identity says that for nonnegative measurable ,These statements apply to sigma-finite intensities and therefore do not require finitely many plants in the entire field. We use these general results without proving them.
Define the total as the nonnegative sum , or equivalently as the increasing limit of its finite-intensity truncations. the Campbell theorem givesSince , the nonnegative random variable cannot be infinite on an event of positive probability. Thus is finite almost surely, even if the number of plants is infinite.
Separate the square into its diagonal and ordered distinct-pair terms. Nonnegativity allows the use of Tonelli's theorem and increasing limits, givingThe assumed second integral is finite, so is square-integrable. Subtracting yieldsThe term accounts for random weights at fixed locations; the term accounts for the Poisson fluctuations in the locations and count. Nonnegativity is natural for weights. For signed marks, absolute first-moment integrability, rather than just a conditionally convergent integral of the signed mean, would be needed for the ordinary sum.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 35 3 d Solution 2026-10-06
Assume individual incubation delays are independent of the Inhomogeneous Poisson process of infections and of one another. This marking assumption is needed in addition to specifying a marginal incubation density.
In the discrete cohort model let be the independent infection counts. Mark each infection by its eventual onset interval. For cohort , the categories have probabilities for observed intervals, with the remaining probability assigned to onsets outside the window. Poisson thinning makes the counts in these categories mutually independent Poisson random variables with means . One direct proof is their probability generating function:Different cohorts are independent. Summing their counts therefore gives independent Poisson onset counts in disjoint intervals:The same argument applies exactly in continuous time by the Independent marking theorem for Poisson point processes and mapping each marked infection to its onset time. The endpoint model approximates its means; its independent-Poisson conclusion is exact within that discrete model. A fixed cohort size would instead induce negatively correlated onset-bin counts, so the Poisson process infection assumption matters.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ii Paper 4 27J c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
For one visitor, letand defineA visitor arriving at time is in room at time exactly when its independent service-time mark satisfies . Thus it receives mark with probability ; a further mark records that it has already left the gallery.
The Independent marking theorem for Poisson point processes makes the point processes carrying the different room marks independent. Consequently are independent, and Poisson thinning givesEquivalently,
Poisson thinning Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Poisson thinning splits a Poisson process by independently marking each arrival as retained or rejected. Let the original Homogeneous Poisson process have rate , and let be a deterministic measurable function of time. Attach independent uniform distributions on , independent of the entire original Poisson process. At arrival time , retain the arrival if . Given all arrival times, these decisions are independent and have the specified retention probabilities. Define the two counting processes using an indicator function:The Poisson thinning theorem gives independent retained and rejected Inhomogeneous Poisson processes. Their rates are and , respectively, in the sense of the intensity function of a point process. In particular, for ,The independence is of the two whole processes: every finite collection of retained counts is independent of every finite collection of rejected counts. It is not merely zero covariance for one interval. For constant , the streams are Homogeneous Poisson processes of rates and ; the endpoints include the identically zero stream.[ref]
Lectures on the Poisson Process by Günter Last and others. Definition 5.7, Proposition 5.5, Theorem 5.8 and Corollary 5.9, printed pp. 42-44: location-dependent independent marking, intensities, and independence of the split processes
For an exact toy calculation, take per minute and retain with on and on . In the first two minutes, the retained and rejected expected values are and . In the next two minutes they are and . Over all four minutes, are independent Poisson distributions with mean each, and their sum has mean . ThusThese probabilities and expected values describe the model, not empirical measurements. In the diagram, the original nine synthetic arrivals split into five retained and four rejected arrivals; those realized counts need not equal their expected values.
Independent marks split a synthetic Poisson arrival path, with exact expected counts for two time-dependent retention probabilities
. Details. The mechanism explains why mutually exclusive labels can yield independent counts: randomness of the original total offsets the dependence from allocating a fixed total. For constant and an interval with original mean , the conditional retained count has a binomial distribution given . The joint probability generating function isThis factorization proves the two independent Poisson distributions; disjoint original intervals give independent pairs. For varying , the Independent marking theorem for Poisson point processes gives the same conclusion with the two integrated intensities. The joint red and green Poisson count formula gives the corresponding direct calculation with probability mass functions.
Independence here is unconditional. After conditioning on , the identity gives covariance for constant . Thus the retained and rejected counts are dependent for and , even though their unconditional covariance is zero. Poisson thinning can model independent routing of arrivals, or independent detection of arrivals with a known efficiency schedule; using only a retention fraction without checking the marking mechanism can give a wrong count law.
