Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 210 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Let and be Radon-Nikodym derivatives. Use the following normalizations of the Kullback-Leibler divergence, total variation distance and unnormalized Hellinger distance:We use and assign infinite Kullback-Leibler divergence if , where denotes absolute continuity of measures. Common domination alone also suffices for the inequalities with the extended-value convention. The negative part of the logarithmic integral is integrable: on , . Thus the extended-value integral defining the Kullback-Leibler divergence is well-defined. These expressions do not depend on which common dominating measure is chosen. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is generally asymmetric and therefore fails a defining property of a metric.
For completeness, the integral formula for total variation distance follows by taking : since , the positive and negative parts of have the same integral, and this set attains the supremum.
Put , by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. A second application givesThe logarithmic inequality in the hint implies for . Apply it to on :Multiplying by and integrating provesIf on a set of positive -measure, the right side is finite but the Kullback-Leibler divergence is infinite, so the inequality is immediate. ThusThis total variation–Hellinger–relative entropy inequality requires the stated Hellinger distance normalization for its first constant. With the alternative convention , the correct comparison is and . In particular, and have .
Here is a testing form of the Le Cam two-point lemma. Suppose two parameter values in a metric space have separation , and let be the corresponding observation laws. Every estimator satisfiesTo prove it, classify by the closer of the two parameters, breaking a tie in favour of one. Let . On , the triangle inequality implies , while on it implies . Hence the sum of the two probabilities in the display is at leastAt least one is at least half the sum, proving the claim. It also gives a lower bound for the maximum expected metric loss.
For absolute-error loss, or any loss given by a metric, there is a stronger expectation form. Take densities relative to and use the triangle inequality under their overlap:Therefore the Le Cam lower bound under absolute-error loss isBoth arguments are valid for randomized estimators as well, by adjoining the independent randomization to the observation; doing so does not change total variation distance.
For the normal distribution model, assume the usual nondegenerate convention and use the full product observation laws. ChooseFor one observation, its Gaussian log likelihood ratio isUnder the first law, and . Thus the Kullback-Leibler divergence between normal distributions isFor the independent and identically distributed random variables, the joint log likelihood ratio is the sum of the individual ones, so the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the two full statistical samples is . The comparison just proved implies . Applying the expectation form of the Le Cam two-point lemma givesThis is a Gaussian location minimax lower bound under absolute-error loss. The constant may depend on the fixed known , but neither on the estimator nor on . If a signed nonzero scale were used, the same result holds with in place of . If zero noise were allowed, would estimate exactly, so a positive lower bound would be false; positive variance is necessary.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 210 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Put and , where is a nonnegative integer and is the smoothing bandwidth. The local polynomial estimator is the intercept of the weighted least squares fitWhen the local polynomial Gram matrix is invertible, the normal equations giveA singular local polynomial Gram matrix requires a selection convention and may leave the intercept unidentified; an arbitrary nonnegative regression kernel alone does not guarantee uniqueness. At , provided , the Nadaraya–Watson estimator isMultiplying every weight by changes neither fit.
For the uniform kernel, let and . Then . For and , the interval is inside , and the regular design hasThe same lower bound holds when the interval starts at zero, despite the absence of the design point zero. In particular the Nadaraya–Watson estimator is defined throughout the integration interval.
For every Lipschitz continuous mean function in , the bias of an estimator and variance satisfyHere the variance uses the independence of the errors in the fixed-design nonparametric regression model. The bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error and Tonelli theorem give a slightly stronger integrated mean squared error bound than required:ThusThe printed integration interval represents a nonnegative risk function for . For , the written integral has reversed limits and is nonpositive, making the displayed upper bound trivial; it should not be interpreted as an integrated mean squared error in that range. For , evaluation outside would additionally require a specified extension of the mean function. The subsequent optimization restricts to .
Minimizing the stated right side givesFor sufficiently large , and . For example take . Therefore the upper bound holds with
For the lower bound, the PDF has the mean squared error ; the TeX erroneously moves the square outside the expected value. The PDF's suggested smooth bump function is , with value zero at the endpoints, rather than the corrupted TeX formula. A triangular alternative suffices because only Lipschitz continuity is needed.
The Le Cam two-point lemma says that for two data laws with parameter separation , every estimator satisfiesIndeed, classify according to the nearer parameter value. Misclassification incurs squared-error loss at least , and the sum of the two error probabilities is at least one minus the total variation distance. Averaging the two risk functions proves the stated form.
Let , , and use the two-point lower bound with a triangular bumpBoth functions are in , and . Assume first that and . At most design points meet the bump's support. The Kullback-Leibler divergence between normal distributions and chain rule for relative entropy giveThe Pinsker's inequality therefore gives . The Le Cam two-point lemma yields the pointwise minimax rate for Lipschitz regressionThis universal constant is valid for .
If the printed lower bound is read as applying to all positive integers , it also holds with a smaller constant depending on the fixed . For , use the constant mean functions and . They have Kullback-Leibler divergence , so Pinsker's inequality and the Le Cam two-point lemma give minimax risk at least . Combining the two ranges gives the explicit all- choiceThe universal asymptotic constant and this parameter-dependent all- constant are distinct conventions; the latter supplies the assertion without inserting an unstated large- restriction.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 210 4 Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
One form of Assouad's lemma is as follows. Let be a statistical experiment and suppose parameters satisfyIf adjacent vertices of the hypercube satisfythen every estimator obeysup to the inessential convention-dependent universal constant.
Construct a hypercube inside the convex cone. Start from . Partition most of into consecutive blocks of grid intervals. On block , let be the chord joining the two endpoint values of minus inside the block, and zero outside. For , setReplacing a convex arc by its chord leaves a convex, nondecreasing function. Its values remain in , so every belongs to , and hence also to the larger parameter set in the first claim.
The perturbations have disjoint supports. For neighboring hypercube vertices their squared Euclidean separation is independent of the block and, using the supplied sum, satisfiesThe observations have identity covariance, so the Kullback-Leibler divergence between normal distributions for neighboring vertices is . Choosewith a sufficiently small universal . Then is bounded above by a small constant and below by another positive constant for all sufficiently large . Pinsker's inequality makes every neighboring total-variation distance at most some fixed .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 219 4 a i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Normal-normal conjugacy givesThe three quantities in the proposed identity areand, by the Kullback-Leibler divergence between normal distributions,Substitution and simplification show that the latter two expressions differ by exactly , so the equality holds.