Bayes' theorem Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a finite measurable partition with positive probabilities, and an event of positive probability,Its beauty is that a model predicting observations from a hidden state can also describe uncertainty about the state after an observation. Each numerator is a joint probability; the denominator, supplied by the law of total probability, makes the answers sum to one. This is a direct consequence of conditional probability, rather than an extra axiom.
Select the coin from law of total probability once, then toss that same coin repeatedly, with conditionally independent tosses given its identity. Let denote the -head coin, initially of prior probability . After one head , its posterior probability isThe likelihood of a head is larger under , but remains less likely than the other coin because its prior probability was smaller. A large likelihood for an observation does not itself imply a large posterior probability for the hypothesis.
After an ordered sequence containing heads and tails, its likelihood ratio between the two coins is . Bayes' theorem therefore gives posterior oddsEach head multiplies the odds by and each tail by . Three heads give posterior probability , still below one half; four give , above one half. The finite-model update and the distinction between prior probability, likelihood and posterior probability are set out in MIT 18.05, Reading 11: Bayesian Updating with Discrete Priors.
Updating uncertainty about one selected coin after repeated observations
. Details. The hidden selection also creates dependence. Each toss has marginal head probability , but two heads have joint probability , greater than . Their indicator covariance is . Seeing a head makes the head-favoring coin more likely, so it also raises the chance of a future head. This is covariance induced by a shared latent variable, despite conditional independence of the tosses given the coin.
Historically, Thomas Bayes's essay on an unknown success probability appeared in 1763 after his death, communicated by Richard Price. Its opening problem asks how observed successes and failures constrain that unknown probability; Price's introductory letter explains the connection to reasoning from experience. That is a more substantial inference problem than simply rearranging today's elementary identity. [ref]
https://www.gtfp.cs.rhul.ac.uk/pulskamp/Bayes/bayesessay-rjp.pdf. Bayes, An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances, 1763; original text transcribed, introductory letter and statement of the problem
For and a finite measurable partition , . The backward conditional entropy chain rule expresses the left side as . Each term equals by measure preservation and the infinite-future formula for partition entropy rate. No invertibility is needed.
Completely positive entropy 2026-10-05
A probability measure-preserving system has completely positive entropy if for every finite measurable partition with . Equivalently, its Pinsker sigma-algebra is trivial. Since finite partitions measurable in a partition tail have zero entropy rate, this property forces every finite-partition tail sigma-algebra of a measurable partition to be trivial.
Conditional expectation Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The conditional expectation is the average of a random variable that can be predicted using specified information. It is itself a random variable: the average appropriate to one observed group may differ from that appropriate to another group. The sigma-algebra records which events can be distinguished with the available information.
For a real integrable random variable on a probability space and a sub-sigma-algebra , the conditional expectation is the almost surely unique integrable random variable that is measurable with respect to and satisfiesIts average therefore agrees with that of on every distinguishable event. The integral characterization handles discrete observations, continuous observations, and information that is not given by a single numerical value.[ref]
If the information tells us which member of a finite measurable partition contains the outcome, then on every member of positive probability,Here is an indicator function. Zero-probability members do not determine a unique value, which is why uniqueness is only almost surely. For square-integrable , this same conditional mean is the best predictor among -measurable random variables under mean squared error; the conditional variance describes its remaining error. A conditional mean is generally not the same as the actual observed value of .[ref]
Conditional information function 2026-10-05
For a measurable partition and a sigma-algebra , the conditional information function isThe conditional expectation in this formula is positive almost everywhere on . Without conditioning, the information is .
Entropy of a countable measurable partition 2026-10-05
For a countable measurable partition, its entropy is , with . This extends entropy of a finite measurable partition and is allowed to be infinite.
Let be finite and measurable in for a finite measurable partition , and put . Choose with . For and , conditional subadditivity gives . Tail measurability and block conditional entropy given the infinite future give . Thus . Divide by , then let and , proving . The proof also works for noninvertible transformations.
Infinite-future formula for partition entropy rate Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
For a finite measurable partition , put . Then . The backward entropy chain rule writes as the sum of the first decreasing finite-future conditional entropies. Their averages have the same limit. Increasing conditioning fields converge by the martingale convergence theorem.
Join of measurable partitions 2026-10-05
The join is the common refinement of two measurable partitions, with atoms given by their nonempty intersections. For a measure-preserving transformation, the block partition is .
Law of total probability Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-18
Let be a countable measurable partition of the sample space, with positive probabilities. For any event , the law of total probability givesThe pieces are disjoint events, so add their masses and use the definition of conditional probability. Zero-mass partition pieces can be omitted without changing the answer.
For the coin selection in probability, let mean the -head coin was selected and let mean the first toss was heads. Then . Each conditional answer describes one possible hidden situation; its weight describes how often that situation occurs under the model. This decomposition is useful whenever a simple conditional model sits behind a more complicated marginal probability distribution.
The law of total probability combines local conditional probabilities into one overall probability. The measurable partition must cover the sample space with pairwise disjoint events: every elementary outcome belongs to exactly one part. Its probabilities are the weights of a weighted mean, and they sum to one.[ref]
Random: Probability, Mathematical Statistics, Stochastic Processes by Kyle Siegrist. Probability Spaces, §4 Conditional Probability, Basic Theory, Conditioning and Bayes' Theorem: countable partition formula and weighted-average interpretation
For an original constructed example, make a finite set of 1,000 items: 600 belong to and 400 to . Mark exactly 60 items in and 100 in , and let the event mean that the selected item is marked. Select an item using the uniform distribution on a finite set. These are prescribed counts, so the resulting probabilities are exact properties of this construction:The conditional probability uses only the 600 items in as its denominator. The probability of the intersection uses all 1,000 items instead: . Similarly, . Adding the two disjoint events gives
An unweighted arithmetic mean of the two conditional probabilities would give . That is the answer to a different selection rule: choose either group with probability , then select uniformly within that group. Here the first group contains more items, so selecting uniformly among all items gives it weight . In fact, if its weight were , the overall probability would be . Moving the weight from to lowers the result by , explaining exactly why is too large for the original model.
The same construction is a mixture distribution: first select a group with its mixture weight, then select an item within that group. Multiplying the weight by its conditional probability gives the probability of reaching through that group; adding the contributions gives the law of total probability. For example, an item in has selection probability , and an item in has selection probability , recovering the original uniform distribution on a finite set.
No assumption of independent events is needed. In this construction differs from , so and are not independent events. Also and are disjoint events with positive probabilities, so they cannot be independent events: their intersection has probability zero, whereas . The measurable partition supplies exclusive alternatives, not an independence assumption.
For a short proof, the intersection pieces have union and are pairwise disjoint events. Apply countable additivity, then substitute the definition of conditional probability on every positive-mass part:A zero-probability event has . Omit it: writing would divide by zero. Countability ensures that the union of the omitted zero-probability events also has probability zero. Overlapping parts would double-count their intersections, and incomplete coverage would omit the probability of in the uncovered region.[ref]
Random: Probability, Mathematical Statistics, Stochastic Processes by Kyle Siegrist. Probability Spaces, §4 Conditional Probability: The Basic Definition requires a positive conditioning probability; Conditioning and Bayes' Theorem proves total probability by partition intersections
Reversing the question gives one compact application of Bayes' theorem. Among the 160 marked items, 100 belong to , so its conditional probability after observing isThe law of total probability supplied the denominator by collecting every way that can occur. Its usefulness lies in choosing a measurable partition where the conditional probabilities are simple, then combining them without losing the relative sizes of the alternatives.
Monotonicity of normalized block entropy 2026-10-05
For a stationary process associated with a finite-entropy measurable partition, is non-increasing. The increments are non-increasing by conditioning reduces entropy, and the chain rule gives . Averages of a decreasing sequence are decreasing.
One-sided generator 2026-10-05
A one-sided generator is a measurable partition with modulo null sets. Equivalently, every measurable set can be approximated in measure by unions of atoms of finite forward-name blocks. A one-sided coordinate partition generates a one-sided Bernoulli shift; for a nontrivial base distribution, it does not generate the two-sided version, whose negative coordinates are independent of the nonnegative ones.
Partition atom 2026-10-05
A partition atom is a member of a measurable partition. For a finite or countable partition, each cell is an atom of a sigma-algebra generated by that partition, whose measurable sets are unions of cells. A partition atom need not be an atom of a measure: an interval cell with positive Lebesgue measure can be split into smaller positive-measure sets that lie outside the generated partition sigma-algebra.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 108 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
On a probability measure-preserving system, for a finite measurable partition , the entropy of a finite measurable partition isUse natural logarithms, so information entropy is measured in nats; another fixed logarithm base rescales all answers. The join of measurable partitions is their common refinement, and write , with an empty join the trivial partition. The entropy rate of a measurable partition and Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy are respectivelyThe block entropies form a subadditive sequence, so the first limit exists by the Fekete lemma. For finite partitions the conditional entropy of finite measurable partitions is .
Put and for . The chain rule for information entropy, applied from the last coordinate backwards, and measure preservation giveThe second equality uses invariance of the joint partition atom probabilities under the common pullback ; invertibility is unnecessary. Since conditioning reduces entropy, decreases to a nonnegative limit . The Cesaro convergence of a sequence of this convergent sequence has the same limit. ThereforeEquivalently , where . Here conditional entropy of a countable measurable partition conditioned on a sigma-algebra is computed using conditional partition atom probabilities; the martingale convergence theorem gives continuity under increasing conditioning sigma-algebras. This is the infinite-future formula for partition entropy rate.
The Kolmogorov-Sinai generator theorem states that if a finite or countable measurable partition has finite entropy of a countable measurable partition and its iterates generate the whole completed sigma-algebra modulo null sets, then . For an invertible system, generating means modulo null sets. For a noninvertible system a one-sided generator, using , suffices. The two-sided and one-sided versions must not be confused.
For a Bernoulli shift with discrete symbol probabilities , the coordinate-zero measurable partition has independent coordinate iterates. ThusFor a finite alphabet the coordinate partition is a generator of finite entropy of a finite measurable partition; on the two-sided sequence space use all integer coordinate iterates, and on the one-sided space use the nonnegative ones. The Kolmogorov-Sinai generator theorem proves the displayed answer in both cases. The same calculation applies to countably many symbols when their Shannon entropy is finite, using the countable finite-entropy version of the theorem. If the Shannon entropy is infinite, merge all but the first symbols into one cell. These finite coordinate partitions have entropy rate , so the system entropy is infinite. Zero-probability symbols contribute zero. In particular a fair -symbol shift has entropy .
For the final assertion, let and complete it modulo null sets. The approximation property forces modulo null sets. Indeed for each , choose approximating sets from finite blocks with error tending to zero. Their indicators approach in , and is a closed vector subspace, so is -measurable modulo a null set.
Invertibility now gives modulo null sets. In particular the present partition is measurable with respect to its entire future, so . The infinite-future formula gives . Since the given one-sided generator is also a two-sided generator, the Kolmogorov-Sinai generator theorem finishes the proof:This is finite one-sided generator of an invertible system forces zero entropy. Invertibility is essential: a fair binary one-sided Bernoulli shift has a finite one-sided generator and Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 108 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For a probability measure-preserving system, the hypothesis is completely positive entropy: every finite measurable partition with positive static entropy of a finite measurable partition has positive entropy rate of a measurable partition. Fix a finite partition and putAll sigma-algebras are interpreted modulo null sets. We will prove that every finite partition measurable with respect to this tail sigma-algebra of a measurable partition has . Applying this to a binary partition will force the required triviality. This proves the needed direction of the Tail characterization of the Pinsker sigma-algebra directly, including noninvertible transformations.
Write . The infinite-future entropy formula and the backwards chain rule for information entropy give, for every , the block conditional entropy given the infinite future identityEach term equals by invariance of the joint probabilities under a common pullback and continuity of conditional entropy under increasing finite future blocks. Invertibility is not needed for this identity.
Fix . Since is -measurable and finite, the martingale convergence theorem and continuity of finite-partition conditional entropy allow an withTo see the continuity explicitly, for each partition atom of the conditional probabilities tend to almost everywhere; apply dominated convergence theorem to the bounded continuous function on and sum over the finitely many partition atoms.
For set , , and . The conditional entropy of finite measurable partitions satisfiesThe second inequality uses conditioning reduces entropy, since refines each block ; the final equality uses measure preservation.
Moreover is -measurable. For each , tail measurability gives measurable with respect to , hence measurable with respect to . Thus conditioning reduces entropy and the displayed block identity implyUse the symmetric entropy identity to obtainThe fraction on the right tends to zero: is fixed and by the definition of entropy rate of a measurable partition. Taking and then gives
Now let and take . If , its binary entropy is , while its entropy rate is zero, contradicting completely positive entropy. ThereforeSince was arbitrary, every finite-partition tail is trivial. The argument needs only that is finite and the measure is a probability; it does not assume a finite generator, finite total system entropy, or invertibility.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 109 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Write and let denote Lebesgue measure. Necessity follows from measure additivity and monotonicity: the pairwise disjoint Lebesgue measurable sets give
For sufficiency, form the finite measurable partition into membership cellsThese Lebesgue measurable sets are pairwise disjoint, and . Empty cells may be retained. Construct a flow network with a source, one vertex for each index , one vertex for each cell , and a sink. Give the source-to- edge capacity , the -to- edge capacity whenever , and the -to-sink edge capacity .
Consider any cut of a flow network, and let be its index vertices on the source side. If an index-to-cell edge crosses the cut of a flow network, its capacity alone is . Otherwise every cell with lies on the source side, so the cut of a flow network has capacity at leastThe cut immediately after the source has capacity . The max-flow min-cut theorem, valid for finite flow networks with real capacities, therefore supplies a flow of value . Its cell allocations satisfy
It remains to convert these numbers into Lebesgue measurable sets; this uses divisibility of Lebesgue measure. Indeed, for any Lebesgue measurable set , the function satisfies , and . Thus it has Lipschitz continuity, and the intermediate value theorem supplies a measurable subset of of any prescribed measure between and . Successively apply this to the remaining portion of each , choosing disjoint pieces of measure ; choose the empty set when . ThenThis proves the measurable Hall theorem. The splitting step is essential: an arbitrary measure with an atom of a measure would not support the same conclusion. Here inclusion allows equality; even if strict inclusion is required, deleting one point of each nonempty from every preserves all measures and ensures .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 108 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let denote the join of measurable partitions recording the first observations, and set , with . The entropy of a countable measurable partition is , using natural logarithms and . Null atoms can be discarded. Throughout, is a probability measure.
The stronger property needed for monotonicity of normalized block entropy is that its increments decrease. DefineSince conditioning reduces entropy, . The conditional entropy chain rule and measure preservation giveIt follows that , and consequentlyThis uses stationarity as well as the entropy chain rule; subadditivity alone would not establish monotonicity of every successive ratio.
The entropy rate of a measurable partition and the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy are, respectively,One may equivalently take the supremum over countable finite-entropy measurable partitions.
The Shannon-McMillan-Breiman theorem states that for a countable measurable partition with , the normalized informationconverges almost everywhere and in to a invariant function with integral . Here is the atom containing . If is an ergodic transformation, then almost everywhere. We prove the general form, including an explicit formula for its limit.
Let be the sigma-algebra generated by , let be trivial, and put . For every atom , the probabilitiesform a bounded conditional-expectation martingale. The martingale convergence theorem gives almost everywhere and in . Each of these probabilities is positive almost everywhere on : for example, integrating over the measurable set gives zero. Countability of lets us choose a common full-measure set for every atom.
The conditional information functionstherefore converge almost everywhere to . We need an integrable bound on this sequence; convergence of the probabilities alone would not supply one after taking logarithms. The allowed maximal inequality for conditional information functions gives, for ,Combining this with the bound by and the tail integral formula for moments yieldsThus , and the dominated convergence theorem gives in . In particular,because is the average of the decreasing sequence .
The information chain rule, applied from the final observation backwards, gives the exact identityIndeed, the symbol at time is conditioned on times ; pulling that conditional probability back by gives . Measure preservation is sufficient for this pullback identity.
We now prove the required triangular ergodic averaging lemma in this instance. Put . Then almost everywhere, , and . Split the difference between the displayed triangular sum and . Terms whose index is at least are bounded by . The remaining terms are at mostAfter division by , each of these finitely many end terms tends to zero almost everywhere by the linear growth bound for integrable observables proved in Question 1. Applying the Birkhoff ergodic theorem to , for every fixed , therefore givesThese conditional expectations decrease to zero almost everywhere: they decrease, and their integrals tend to zero. Letting , then applying the Birkhoff ergodic theorem to , proves
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 108 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
The Rudolph measure rigidity theorem has an essential ergodicity hypothesis. If a Borel probability measure on the circle group is invariant under both and , is ergodic for the semigroup generated jointly by these maps, and either map has positive Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy, thenEquivalently, a jointly ergodic common invariant measure other than Lebesgue measure has zero entropy for both maps. Joint ergodicity means that every set invariant modulo under both maps has measure zero or one. Positive entropy without this hypothesis is insufficient: , with a Dirac measure, is a common invariant measure of positive entropy and is not .
The Host equidistribution theorem states that if are relatively prime integers and is invariant and ergodic under , with , then for -almost every the sequence is an equidistributed sequence for Lebesgue measure. Explicitly, for every continuous on the circle,The non-ergodic form assumes invariance and positive entropy for almost every component in the ergodic decomposition . Applying the ergodic theorem of Host on each such component gives the same almost-everywhere conclusion for . More generally, its conclusion holds on the part supported on positive-entropy components. A positive value of alone does not eliminate zero-entropy components.
To deduce the joint version of the Rudolph measure rigidity theorem, suppose ; if only has positive entropy, interchange the roles. Write the ergodic decomposition as . Since commutes with , its pushforward measure sends a ergodic component to a ergodic component . On each component, is a factor of a measure-preserving system with fibres of size at most three. We use the standard entropy preservation under a finite-to-one factor:The reason for this standard entropy fact is that, conditional on a complete factor point, every finite orbit name has at most three possibilities; its conditional entropy is bounded by , and division by the orbit length gives zero relative entropy.
The component at is almost everywhere; this follows from commutation and the componentwise ergodic averages. The component entropy function is therefore invariant under both and . Joint ergodicity makes it constant almost everywhere, and affinity of entropy under ergodic decomposition identifies the constant as . Thus almost every component has positive entropy, exactly the condition required in the non-ergodic Host equidistribution theorem. It follows that -almost every point equidistributes for under .
For any continuous , invariance under and the dominated convergence theorem now giveContinuous functions determine Borel probability measures on the circle, so , proving the deduction.
For the normal-number example, let be independent fair binary digits and defineThis Cantor Bernoulli measure is supported on the middle-third Cantor set . If is the Bernoulli shift, then on the circle. Consequently is invariant and ergodic: a invariant event pulls back to an invariant event, which has probability zero or one.
Take the ternary digit measurable partition . Its block partition of length has, up to null endpoints, positive-measure atoms under , each of measure , and all other atoms have measure zero. HenceApply the Host equidistribution theorem with , . For -almost every , the sequence equidistributes for Lebesgue measure, so is a normal number in base by normality and equidistribution under integer multiplication.
The ternary expansion of -almost every such contains only and , so the frequency of digit is zero rather than . The ambiguous ternary endpoints form a countable null set and can be removed. Therefore is not a normal number in base . We have proved the stronger almost-everywhere existence statement
Shannon-McMillan-Breiman theorem Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
For a probability measure-preserving system and a countable measurable partition of finite entropy, converges almost everywhere and in to an invariant function whose integral is . For an ergodic transformation, the limit is the constant . In general it is . The martingale convergence theorem, maximal inequality for conditional information functions, and triangular ergodic averaging lemma prove this directly, without invertibility.
Simple function Created 2026-09-29 Updated 2026-10-14
A simple function is a measurable function whose image is a finite set. Its value sets form a finite measurable partition. For nonnegative , its Lebesgue integral is , with the convention . The pieces need not be intervals, or even connected sets. See MIT lecture 10, Definitions 100 and 106.
For example, on let be on , on , and on . Its Lebesgue integral is . Its superlevel sets have Lebesgue measure for , for , and thereafter. The layer cake representation gives the same answer: . These two calculations are the building blocks of the general Lebesgue integral.


