Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 32 7 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Choose candidate variables from subject-matter knowledge, measurement quality and the target question before screening on outcomes. For an adjusted-effect analysis, retain prespecified confounders and essential design variables even when their individual values are large. For prediction, consider reliable predictors available at the intended prediction time; do not include future information. Handle missingness transparently, using a justified multiple imputation strategy where appropriate rather than changing the analyzed population unpredictably as variables enter.
Encode a categorical variable with indicators relative to a stated reference category, and assess it as a group. Check multicollinearity, sparse categories and plausible interactions. The relevant information is chiefly the number and distribution of events, not merely the number of enrolled subjects: hundreds of correlated or rarely varying predictors cannot be supported by a small event count.
Compare prespecified nested models by a likelihood-ratio test based on the partial log-likelihood and the change in parameter dimension. Penalized methods such as ridge regression or Lasso regression applied to the Cox likelihood can stabilize many-variable models; choose tuning by suitable validation and account for mandatory variables. The Akaike information criterion or a limited, documented model-selection procedure can help balance fit and complexity. Unrestricted stepwise searches and repeated univariable screening invite unstable choices, omit joint confounding effects, and make naive post-selection intervals misleading. Prefer a defensible, validated covariate set to a collection chosen only for small values.
The monthly nurse assessments are auxiliary longitudinal outcomes observed even after clinic dropout. Investigators can include their histories, treatment, and earlier QoL in a multiple imputation model for missing 12-month QoL, or in a joint longitudinal model. Because the assessments predict disability and QoL, conditioning on them reduces residual outcome variance and makes each imputed value more informative, improving precision of the treatment-effect estimate. A prespecified covariate-adjusted or augmented inverse-probability estimator could use the same information.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 207 2 2 7 b Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
For , the fitted conditional success probabilities for areAmong all 250 subjects with , multiple imputation asymptotically assigns to and to . HenceUsing the supplied limit for gives
Posterior predictive distribution Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
The distribution of a new or missing quantity integrates its model over the Bayesian posterior: . Both parameter and residual uncertainty should enter predictive draws used for multiple imputation.