Under the studentized normal sample mean assumptions, let denote the quantile at cumulative probability of the Student's t-distribution. For , rearranging the event gives a Student t confidence interval for the unknown mean with exact coverage probability . [ref]
Choose the list as an original arithmetic example, not as reported measurements or a claim that these five numbers establish a normal distribution. If such values were obtained under the assumed independent and identically distributed normal distribution model with unknown , then
There are four statistical degrees of freedom. For a 95% confidence interval, , so
Using the standard normal quantile with the same estimated standard error would give only . That underestimates the correct margin by about 29.4%. Indeed its actual coverage probability under this normal distribution model is , rather than 0.95.
Figure 1.
Chosen five-value example: estimating the spread requires a wider t confidence interval
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The observations, the sample mean and the confidence interval all have different meanings. The bar estimates the population mean; it is not an interval intended to contain 95% of individual observations. In repeated independent samples of size five from the assumed normal distribution, 95% of intervals constructed using the exact quantile cover the same fixed . This is not a 95% posterior probability that the fixed statistical parameter lies in this particular realized interval. Such a probability requires a separate Bayesian inference model.
For this four-degree case, the cumulative distribution function has an especially simple form:
One can check the formula by differentiation: , with limits zero and one at the two ends of the real line. Solving the increasing equation by the bisection method gives the quantile used above.