Past exam of the mathematical models of financial derivatives course of the University of Oxford / 2015 / 1 / a

Write $R=e^r$, $u=4/3$ and $d=2/3$. Since both moves have positive physical probability, the binomial options pricing model is free of arbitrage exactly whenIf $R\le d$, borrowing the share price and buying one share gives terminal gain $S_t(u-R)$ or $S_t(d-R)$, both nonnegative and at least one positive. If $R\ge u$, shorting one share and investing its proceeds gives the opposite comparison, with gain $S_t(R-u)$ or $S_t(R-d)$. Equality at either endpoint still permits arbitrage because the other outcome has positive probability.

Conversely, strict inequalities give a risk-neutral probability $q=(R-d)/(u-d)\in (0,1)$, for which the discounted share is a martingale. Any zero-cost self-financing portfolio with nonnegative terminal value has zero discounted expectation under this equivalent positive-probability law and hence cannot have a strictly positive payoff in either state. Applying this argument conditionally at each node proves no-arbitrage over the tree.