Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2010 / iii / Paper 31 / 1

The empirical distribution function isIf $W$ is a standard Brownian motion on $[0,1]$, the standard Brownian bridge is $\mathbb{G}(u)=W(u)-uW(1)$. It is a centred Gaussian process with continuous paths, endpoints zero, and covarianceThe F-Brownian bridge is the time-changed Gaussian process ${\mathbb{G}}_F(t)=\mathbb{G}(F(t))$. Its covariance is $F(\min (s,t))-F(s)F(t)$, exactly the covariance of the empirical distribution process ${\alpha }_n=\sqrt{n}(F_n-F)$.

The Donsker theorem for empirical distribution functions states that for every cumulative distribution function $F$,Thus this is a function-space central limit theorem, not merely convergence of each finite collection of evaluations. The limit is a tight centred Gaussian process. No continuity of $F$ is required for this statement; a jump of $F$ can give a jump of ${\mathbb{G}}_F$.

For precision, ${\ell }^{\infty }(\mathbb{R})$ is generally nonseparable, and the finite-sample process need not be a Borel-measurable random element for its norm topology. The displayed convergence in distribution has the usual empirical-process interpretation: for every bounded continuous real functional $H$, the outer expectation and inner expectation of $H({\alpha }_n)$ converge to $\mathbb{E}H({\mathbb{G}}_F)$. The outer expectation is the infimum of expectations of measurable majorants, and the inner expectation is its negative applied to $-H({\alpha }_n)$. For measurable real statistics this gives ordinary convergence in distribution. The limit is tight and separably supported: $g\mapsto g\circ F$ maps the separable space of continuous bridge paths continuously into ${\ell }^{\infty }(\mathbb{R})$.

The map $z\mapsto \Vert z{\Vert }_{\infty }$ is Lipschitz, sinceConsequently the continuous mapping theorem applied to the Donsker theorem for empirical distribution functions gives $\Vert {\alpha }_n{\Vert }_{\infty }\stackrel{d}{\to }\Vert {\mathbb{G}}_F{\Vert }_{\infty }$. The statistic on the left is measurable: both $F_n$ and $F$ are right-continuous, so its supremum equals the supremum over rational $t$.

If $F$ is continuous, its limits at $-\infty$ and $+\infty$ are zero and one. The intermediate value theorem therefore shows that $F(\mathbb{R})$ contains $(0,1)$, even when $F$ is not strictly increasing. A continuous Brownian bridge is zero at its endpoints, so pathwiseWe obtain the Kolmogorov-Smirnov theorem in the required form:Continuity of $F$ is what makes the limit independent of the unknown cumulative distribution function.

Choose $c_{\alpha }$ with $\mathbb{P}(Z\le c_{\alpha })=1-\alpha$. The law of $Z$ has no atoms. For example, the Brownian reflection principle and conditioning a Brownian motion on its endpoint give $\mathbb{P}(\max \mathbb{G}>a)=e^{-2a^2}$ for $a>0$: the reflected endpoint density at zero is the normal density at $2a$, divided by its value at zero. Hence both one-sided maxima have continuous laws, and an atom of $Z$ would require an atom of one of them. Also $\mathbb{P}(Z=0)=0$, since $\mathbb{G}(1/2)$ is nondegenerate. Thus such quantiles give the desired limiting coverage.

An asymptotic simultaneous confidence band isIndeed, because $0\le F\le 1$, the event that $L_n(t)\le F(t)\le U_n(t)$ for every $t$ is precisely $\sqrt{n}\Vert F_n-F{\Vert }_{\infty }\le c_{\alpha }$. Its probability tends to $1-\alpha$. This is simultaneous coverage over all real $t$, rather than separate pointwise confidence intervals.