Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2016 / iii / Paper 211 / 1

The natural filtration of $S$ is the natural Brownian filtration: since $\sigma >0$, the equation $W_t=(\log (S_t/S_0)-\mu t)/\sigma$ recovers the entire Brownian motion history from the stock history. For $s<t$, independent increments and the moment-generating function of a normal distribution giveAll these expectations are finite. Since $S_s>0$, the martingale identity holds for every $s<t$ exactly when the last exponential equals one. The required logarithmic drift isThis is the distinction between the drift of $\log S$ and the drift of $S$: here the latter is zero.

Write $h=T-t$. Conditional on ${\mathcal{F}}_t^S$, independent increments of the Brownian motion givewhere $Y$ has the standard normal distribution and is independent of ${\mathcal{F}}_t^S$. Factoring $S_t$ out of the positive part identifies the normalized Black-Scholes call function:The European call option payoff is integrable, because $0\le (S_T-K{)}^{+}\le S_T$ and $\mathbb{E}{S}_T=S_0$. The tower property of conditional expectation therefore proves that $C$ is a true martingale. At $t=T$, the boundary value $F(0,m)=(1-m{)}^{+}$ gives $C_T=(S_T-K{)}^{+}$. The answer is the conditional payoff martingale

First work with the filtration ${\mathcal{G}}_t={\mathcal{F}}_t^W\vee \sigma (1_{\{u\le \tau \}}:0\le u\le t)$, which records the Brownian motion and whether default has occurred. On $\{s>\tau \}$ all subsequent defaultable stock prices vanish. On $\{s\le \tau \}$, the memoryless property of the exponential distribution gives survival from $s$ to $t$ with conditional probability $e^{-\lambda (t-s)}$. The residual survival event is independent of the future independent increments of the Brownian motion. Thus, for deterministic $s<t$,Also $\mathbb{E}{\hat{S}}_t=e^{\lambda t}{e}^{-\lambda t}{S}_0=S_0$, so this is a true martingale, with no localization needed. Its natural filtration is contained in $\mathcal{G}$; applying the tower property of conditional expectation to the displayed identity yields the requested natural-filtration martingale property:The printed convention keeps the stock alive at $t=\tau$. It is a left-continuous convention at that one random time. Replacing it by $1_{\{t<\tau \}}$ gives the usual càdlàg zero-recovery default model; since $\mathbb{P}(\tau =t)=0$ at each fixed $t$, the fixed-time martingale calculations above are unchanged.

A martingale with the specified terminal value must equal its conditional expectation. If ${\hat{S}}_t=0$, default has already occurred and the terminal European call option payoff is zero. If ${\hat{S}}_t>0$, put $h=T-t$. Conditional on survival to $T$,where $Y$ has the standard normal distribution; the conditional probability of this survival is $e^{-\lambda h}$. The conditional expectation of the payoff in the enlarged filtration used in part (c) is consequentlyThis expression is already measurable with respect to the natural filtration of $\hat{S}$, so the tower property of conditional expectation gives the same value there. The survival factor cancels the compensating growth factor:The separate zero branch avoids division by zero. At $t=T$ it gives the required payoff, using $F(0,m)=(1-m{)}^{+}$; integrability follows from $({\hat{S}}_T-K{)}^{+}\le {\hat{S}}_T$.