Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2017 / ii / Paper 2 / 5J (Statistical Modelling)

Use the usual normal linear model $Y=X\beta +\epsilon$, with fixed full-column-rank design $X\in {\mathbb{R}}^{n\times p}$, $n>p$, and $\epsilon \sim N(0,{\sigma }^2{I}_n)$. These Gaussian distribution and constant-variance hypotheses are necessary for an exact finite-sample Student's t-test. Put $V=(X^{T}X{)}^{-1}$ and $\nu =n-p$. The vector of ordinary least squares estimators satisfiesWith $s^2=\Vert Y-X\hat{\beta }{\Vert }^2/\nu$, the test statistic isUnder the null hypothesis, $T$ has Student's t-distribution with $\nu$ degrees of freedom. A two-sided level-$5\%$ Student's t-test rejects when $|T|>t_{\nu ,0.975}$. If the intended test is one-sided against ${\beta }_0>0$, it rejects when $T>t_{\nu ,0.95}$; the statistical power conclusion below holds for either convention.

The orthogonal projections of the Gaussian noise onto the column space of $X$ and its orthogonal complement are independent. Consequently ${\hat{\beta }}_0$ and the residual sum of squares are independent, andThus under the alternative,This is the noncentral t-distribution. The rejection region is fixed by the design, $\nu$ and the chosen level, while this probability distribution depends on $\beta$ only through ${\beta }_0$. Therefore the statistical power does not depend on the other regression coefficients, with the design and $\sigma$ fixed.