Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2021 / 1 / a

Put $A=\{|X|\ge Z\}$. Both $A$ and its indicator function are measurable, and $0\le Z{1}_A\le |X|$. Thus $Z{1}_A$ is an integrable random variable. Monotonicity of conditional expectation givesThe measurable-factor property of conditional expectation says that a bounded $\mathcal{G}$-measurable function $H$ satisfies $\mathbb{E}[HW\mid \mathcal{G}]=H\mathbb{E}[W\mid \mathcal{G}]$ for every integrable random variable $W$. Here the factor $Z$ need not be bounded. Apply that property first to $Z\wedge m$ and $W=1_A$, then use monotone convergence on the nonnegative products, including the conditional version, to obtainAll the left-hand conditional expectations are well defined; the final one is finite almost surely because $Z{1}_A$ is an integrable random variable. Since $Z>0$ almost surely, division now yieldsThis proves the conditional Markov inequality with a measurable threshold without assuming that $Z^{-1}|X|$ is an integrable random variable. The measurable-factor rule, with its product-integrability condition, is also stated in the standard conditional expectation theory.^[ref]

Write $A=g(X)$ and $B=g(Y)$. The two conditional expectation identities supply a $\sigma (Y)$-measurable version of $B$ and a $\sigma (X)$-measurable version of $A$. Work with those versions, which do not change any almost sure equality. Both lie in L2 space, and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality makes their product an integrable random variable.

Testing the first conditional expectation identity against $B$, and the second against $A$, givesFor completeness, these tests with unbounded multipliers are valid by first using the bounded truncations $B_m=(-m)\vee (B\wedge m)$ and $A_m=(-m)\vee (A\wedge m)$, then passing to the limit with the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality and convergence in L2. Consequently,A nonnegative random variable with zero expected value vanishes almost surely. Therefore $g(X)=g(Y)$ almost surely. This is mutual conditional expectation rigidity in L2; it also follows from the equality case for conditional second moments.

For a counterexample to equality of the original random variables, let $X$ give probability $1/4$ to each of $-2,-1,1,2$, set $Y=-X$, and use the nonconstant function $g(t)=t^2$. Then $g(X)=g(Y)=X^2$ takes both values $1$ and $4$. It is measurable with respect to both generated sigma-algebras, so both required conditional expectation identities hold. Symmetry gives $\mathbb{E}X=\mathbb{E}Y=0$, while neither random variable can be zero. Thus