Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2021 / 3 / b

The filtration is generated by the successive independent random variables $X_k$. Each $S_n$ is adapted, and $|S_n|\le n$ makes it an integrable random variable. Since independence gives $\mathbb{E}[X_{n+1}\mid {\mathcal{F}}_n]=0$,Thus $(S_n)$ is a martingale.

Write the accumulated number of visits to zero asIt is adapted, and $0\le L_n\le n$. Thus $M_n=|S_n|-L_n$ is also adapted and an integrable random variable. For every integer $s$,Conditioning on $S_n$ and using independence of the next step therefore givesThe drift of the absolute value is cancelled exactly by the visit count, so $\mathbb{E}[M_{n+1}-M_n\mid {\mathcal{F}}_n]=0$. Hence both $(S_n)$ and $(M_n)$ are martingales. The latter is the absolute value martingale of a simple symmetric random walk, a discrete Tanaka formula in which visits to zero supply the correction at the corner of the absolute-value function.

For each $n$,since $S_k$ is adapted. This verifies directly that $\tau$ is a stopping time.

Set $d=b-a$. On $\{\tau >md\}$, the random walk is at some integer strictly between $a$ and $b$. If its next $d$ steps are all $+1$, it must hit $b$ within that block. These future steps are independent of ${\mathcal{F}}_{md}$ and have probability $2^{-d}$ of being all $+1$. HenceThe law of total expectation and mathematical induction give the geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability:Therefore $\mathbb{P}(\tau <\infty )=1$. In fact this also proves $\mathbb{E}\tau \le d{2}^d<\infty$ by grouping the tail-sum formula into blocks of length $d$. No assertion of independence between successive survival events is needed.

The optional stopping theorem at a bounded stopping time states that an integrable martingale $Z_n$ satisfies $\mathbb{E}{Z}_T=\mathbb{E}{Z}_0$ whenever $T\le n$ for a fixed finite $n$. Apply this first to $S$ at $T=n\wedge \tau$. The simple symmetric random walk cannot cross an integer endpoint without hitting it, soThe preceding part gives $\tau <\infty$ almost surely, hence $S_{n\wedge \tau }\to S_{\tau }$ almost surely. The constant bound $C=\max \{-a,b\}$ permits the dominated convergence theorem, yielding $\mathbb{E}{S}_{\tau }=0$. Since $S_{\tau }$ is either $a$ or $b$, solving $ap+b(1-p)=0$ gives its full probability distribution:Now letThis counts the visit at time $0$, and excludes the exit time. Apply the same bounded-time optional stopping theorem to $M_n=|S_n|-L_n$. For each $n$ it givesThe visit counts increase to $L_{\tau }$, so monotone convergence applies to the left. Dominated convergence applies to the right using $|S_{n\wedge \tau }|\le C$. Consequently $L_{\tau }$ is an integrable random variable andThis is the origin case of expected occupation before interval exit for a simple symmetric random walk. The argument obtains integrability of the total occupation count before using any unbounded-time optional stopping for $M$, so it does not presuppose the uniform integrability asked about next. The endpoint probabilities also agree with the standard gambler's ruin calculation.^[ref]

Yes. The preceding calculation established $\mathbb{E}{L}_{\tau }=-2ab/(b-a)<\infty$. For every $n$, the stopped martingale satisfiesHere $H$ is a single nonnegative integrable random variable that bounds the whole family. Thus, for any $K>0$,The last limit follows from the dominated convergence theorem. This is precisely uniform integrability. It also gives $M_{n\wedge \tau }\to M_{\tau }=|S_{\tau }|-L_{\tau }$ with convergence in L1, and therefore $\mathbb{E}{M}_{\tau }=0$, consistently with the preceding answer. A common bound on the individual expected values alone would not have sufficed; the integrable dominating random variable is what supplies control of every tail.