Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 ii Paper 1 27K c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-05
Write . The embedded birth-death chain moves upward with probability and downward with probability away from zero. The gambler's ruin formula, obtained by solving its two-point difference equation on and then letting , gives . Translation gives return probability from to . From the chain hits almost surely: before that hit it remains in a finite reflecting interval, from every state of which a uniformly positive finite-step chance of hitting is available. This also proves that starting at zero it hits each almost surely.
After departure from the return probability is thereforeThe holding rate is , so the exponential occupation-time parameter is . Applying the Strong Markov property at the almost-sure first hit givesAt zero the holding rate is and return probability after departure is , again giving parameter . From initial state , the expected occupation time at zero is , since the time is zero unless zero is reached. Averaging over the initial law with probability generating function yieldsFor , the interpretation is , for , and ; the same formulas hold.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 207 1 c Solution 2026-10-03
For each person, infection occurs with probability and, conditional on infection, a GP visit occurs with probability . Independent Bernoulli thinning therefore gives visit probability . More explicitly, the probability generating function isThusand the likelihood is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 ii Paper 2 28J a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
For , its probability generating function isThus andThe log-likelihood is, up to an additive constant,so the maximum-likelihood estimator is . The central limit theorem gives
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 ii Paper 3 13C a ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Multiply the master equation by and sum over . For the immigration terms,For the death terms, shifting the first sum givesTherefore the probability generating function obeys
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ia Paper 1 4F Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
Let be the size of generation . This is a Galton-Watson process with offspring meanThe expected generation size in a Galton-Watson process is thereforeIts probability generating function isBy the Galton-Watson extinction fixed point, the extinction probability is the smallest solution in of . Factoring givesso . The probability of production continuing forever is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 ii Paper 1 28K a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Let be the number of particles of gas in a bounded Lebesgue measurable set . Because Lebesgue measure is diffuse, two independent spatial Poisson point processes have no common particle almost surely. Hence the mixture count isWriting , independence gives the probability generating functionThus
If are pairwise disjoint, the familyis independent: counts in disjoint sets are independent within each gas, and the two gases are independent. Therefore the sums are independent. These two facts prove directly that the mixture is a Poisson point process. By the Superposition theorem for Poisson point processes, its activity is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 ia Paper 2 10F a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ii Paper 3 27J b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Let be the number of telephone lines in use. The memorylessness of the exponential distribution makes a continuous-time Markov chain, specifically the M-M-infinity queue with generator rates
Suppose and put . Each initial call is still active at time with the exponential survival probability , independently of the others. Their surviving number is thereforeA call arriving at time survives until with probability . By Poisson thinning, the number of surviving new calls is independent of and has lawHence in distribution. Multiplying the probability generating functions of the two independent random variables gives, for ,Equivalently, the transient distribution of an M-M-infinity queue iswith independent summands. As , the binomial term converges to zero and the Poisson mean tends to . Thereforewhich proves the stated large-time approximation.
Poisson branching process 2026-10-07
A Galton-Watson process with a Poisson distribution of offspring of mean has this probability generating function. For its branching survival probability satisfies , and . Indeed lies between and . These exact inequalities belong to the Poisson branching process, not to every finite binomial branching process.
Renewal equation 2026-10-06
A renewal equation decomposes a process at its first renewal. For returns of a Markov chain to a fixed state, is the first-return probability and the probability of being at that state at time . Their probability generating functions satisfy .
Shifted-exponential Poisson count recursion 2026-10-07
For the shifted-exponential Poisson mixture, the displayed relation holds for , initialized by and . It follows by differentiating the probability generating function and comparing coefficients. Nonnegativity follows from the independent Poisson-geometric convolution of independent random variables representation.
Zero-truncated claim-count distribution 2026-10-06
For a nonnegative integer claim count with , the conditional law given has masses for . Its probability generating function is . Truncation at zero is meaningful only when the positive-count event has positive probability.