Write . The embedded birth-death chain moves upward with probability and downward with probability away from zero. The gambler's ruin formula, obtained by solving its two-point difference equation on and then letting , gives . Translation gives return probability from to . From the chain hits almost surely: before that hit it remains in a finite reflecting interval, from every state of which a uniformly positive finite-step chance of hitting is available. This also proves that starting at zero it hits each almost surely.
After departure from the return probability is therefore
The holding rate is , so the exponential occupation-time parameter is . Applying the Strong Markov property at the almost-sure first hit gives
At zero the holding rate is and return probability after departure is , again giving parameter . From initial state , the expected occupation time at zero is , since the time is zero unless zero is reached. Averaging over the initial law with probability generating function yields
For , the interpretation is , for , and ; the same formulas hold.
For each person, infection occurs with probability and, conditional on infection, a GP visit occurs with probability . Independent Bernoulli thinning therefore gives visit probability . More explicitly, the probability generating function is
Thus
and the likelihood is
For , its probability generating function is
Thus and
The log-likelihood is, up to an additive constant,
so the maximum-likelihood estimator is . The central limit theorem gives
Multiply the master equation by and sum over . For the immigration terms,
For the death terms, shifting the first sum gives
Therefore the probability generating function obeys
Let be the size of generation . This is a Galton-Watson process with offspring mean
The expected generation size in a Galton-Watson process is therefore
Its probability generating function is
By the Galton-Watson extinction fixed point, the extinction probability is the smallest solution in of . Factoring gives
so . The probability of production continuing forever is
Let be the number of particles of gas in a bounded Lebesgue measurable set . Because Lebesgue measure is diffuse, two independent spatial Poisson point processes have no common particle almost surely. Hence the mixture count is
Writing , independence gives the probability generating function
Thus
If are pairwise disjoint, the family
is independent: counts in disjoint sets are independent within each gas, and the two gases are independent. Therefore the sums are independent. These two facts prove directly that the mixture is a Poisson point process. By the Superposition theorem for Poisson point processes, its activity is
The probability generating function is
Differentiating times,
At , only the term remains. Hence
Let be the number of telephone lines in use. The memorylessness of the exponential distribution makes a continuous-time Markov chain, specifically the M-M-infinity queue with generator rates
Suppose and put . Each initial call is still active at time with the exponential survival probability , independently of the others. Their surviving number is therefore
A call arriving at time survives until with probability . By Poisson thinning, the number of surviving new calls is independent of and has law
Hence in distribution. Multiplying the probability generating functions of the two independent random variables gives, for ,
Equivalently, the transient distribution of an M-M-infinity queue is
with independent summands. As , the binomial term converges to zero and the Poisson mean tends to . Therefore
which proves the stated large-time approximation.
Poisson branching process 2026-10-07
A Galton-Watson process with a Poisson distribution of offspring of mean has this probability generating function. For its branching survival probability satisfies , and . Indeed lies between and . These exact inequalities belong to the Poisson branching process, not to every finite binomial branching process.
Renewal equation 2026-10-06
A renewal equation decomposes a process at its first renewal. For returns of a Markov chain to a fixed state, is the first-return probability and the probability of being at that state at time . Their probability generating functions satisfy .
For the shifted-exponential Poisson mixture, the displayed relation holds for , initialized by and . It follows by differentiating the probability generating function and comparing coefficients. Nonnegativity follows from the independent Poisson-geometric convolution of independent random variables representation.
For a nonnegative integer claim count with , the conditional law given has masses for . Its probability generating function is . Truncation at zero is meaningful only when the positive-count event has positive probability.