Generalized estimating equation 2026-10-07
For independent clusters with mean vector and positive definite working covariance matrix , a generalized estimating equation solvesCorrect mean specification and regularity can give a consistent estimator of identifiable mean coefficients despite a misspecified working covariance. A sandwich covariance matrix accounts for actual cluster variation. Mean equations alone cannot identify two parameters that always enter through the same combination.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 37 6 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
For the moment approach, write and let be a positive-definite working covariance constructed from the proposed moment formulas. For identifiable mean coefficients , let . Generalized estimating equations take the formAcross independent students, correct mean specification and standard regularity conditions give consistent identifiable mean coefficients even if the working covariance is wrong. Sandwich covariance matrix standard errors useResidual second-moment estimating equations can estimate identifiable dispersion and association parameters. The marginal mean only identifies , not and separately. Moment restrictions beyond the mean would be needed to separate them; as shown below, the printed restrictions do not generally recover the intended latent parameters.
For the hierarchical approach, maximize the observed-data likelihood after integrating out the random effect. Set , , and . The joint likelihood contribution isThe integral comes from multiplying three conditional Poisson mass functions by the Gamma density and integrating over . Independent students give . Direct numerical maximum likelihood or an expectation-maximization algorithm can be used; in an EM algorithm an all-zero profile has an uncertain latent component membership. Information-based likelihood standard errors apply under regular interior conditions, with special care for parameter boundaries.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 32 6 Solution 2026-10-07
The episodes from one patient share treatment, biological susceptibility and prior history, so they are not independent observations. Treating every row as an unrelated subject can substantially understate uncertainty. Two approaches address this within-patient recurrent-event dependence:
- A patient-clustered sandwich covariance matrix retains a suitable working Cox mean/intensity model but groups score contributions by patient. If is the patient's score contribution and the observed information, its form is . Independent patients, rather than independent rows, determine the sampling units. This corrects uncertainty for within-patient dependence when the working estimating equation is appropriate; it does not repair an incorrect mean model.
- A shared frailty model introduces a common latent positive multiplier for all of patient 's episode hazards, often with a specified gamma or lognormal distribution. Given frailty and the relevant history, the event mechanism is modeled through that patient's intensity. Estimate treatment and frailty parameters by integrating or profiling the latent effect. This models persistent heterogeneity directly, but relies on the frailty assumptions and generally gives a conditional treatment-effect interpretation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 221 2 d Solution 2026-09-28
LetAssumption 2 implies . Although the printed need not converge to , its first-order effect vanishes because . Inverting the Jacobian of the remaining estimating equations gives the influence functionThe first-stage condition yieldsHence the asymptotic variance of is the sandwich expression
There is a defect in the printed assumptions: alone does not determine , because depends on and can have a nonzero conditional mean given under unmeasured confounding. Under the standard intended strengthening , the formula simplifies toThe asymptotic variance of itself is .
Within-patient recurrent-event dependence 2026-10-07
Repeated episodes from one person share susceptibility, treatment and history, so row-wise independence is generally inappropriate. Patient-clustered sandwich covariance matrices estimate uncertainty using whole-patient score contributions under a suitable working model. Shared frailty models instead model persistent latent heterogeneity. These methods require independent sampling units at the patient level and do not necessarily estimate the same marginal versus conditional effect.