Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
A statistical path through is a family , defined on an open interval containing zero, with . Write and . Its differentiability in quadratic mean at zero means that there is a square-integrable function such thatThe function is the score function of the statistical path. Thus it is the derivative of the square-root probability density function, multiplied by two and divided by where . The score function is determined only -almost everywhere. The displayed definition also controls any probability mass entering a region where ; a pointwise derivative of the log probability density function alone would not do that. The required derivative is in the square-root-density norm.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Put . By differentiability in quadratic mean, andin L2 space. The second limit follows because the first gives .
Both probability density functions integrate to one. Consequently the L2 inner product satisfiesThe Cauchy-Schwarz inequality permits passage to the limit in this inner product, givingThus every score function is a mean-zero function. This proof uses square-root differentiability in quadratic mean, without requiring differentiation under the density integral.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Fix . Let be the nuisance tangent space: the closed linear span in of score functions of statistical paths that vary only the nuisance parameter . By the preceding argument, is contained in the mean-zero L2 space .
Let denote orthogonal projection onto this closed subspace of a Hilbert space. The efficient score and scalar efficient information areThe efficient score is the component of the parametric score function that cannot be reproduced by changing the nuisance parameter. The efficient information is its squared L2 norm; it can be zero, so positivity must not be assumed in the definition.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 1 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
The map is a bounded linear functional on L2 space, since by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. Its kernel, the mean-zero L2 space, is therefore closed. Every nuisance score function and the parametric score function are centered, so both and are centered. HenceMoreover, the efficient score belongs to the orthogonal complement of the nuisance tangent space. Writing givesThis is the efficient-score projection identity; it remains valid when the efficient information is zero.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 2 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Choose a collection of statistical paths through that are differentiable in quadratic mean. A statistical tangent set at is the set of their score functions. In particular each member belongs to , by the mean-zero score identity under quadratic-mean differentiability.
A statistical tangent set records which first-order directions the chosen statistical paths can realize. Its closed linear span in L2 space is the statistical tangent space. The tangent set consists of attainable scores; the tangent space also includes their linear combinations and limits.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Let be a bounded function with . A bounded density tilt realizes this direction:These are nonnegative probability density functions, since . The uniform Taylor expansion of the square root givesThe squared L2 norm of this remainder is , since is bounded. Thus the statistical path is differentiable in quadratic mean with score function .
Conversely every score function is centered by the mean-zero score identity under quadratic-mean differentiability. Choosing all these bounded density tilts therefore gives the statistical tangent setThis is a valid choice of statistical tangent set; it does not assert that every possible score function in the unrestricted density model is bounded.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Consider any differentiable-in-quadratic-mean path with score function . Put , where . The quadratic-mean to L1 density derivative follows fromBy the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,Since is a bounded function, multiplying this L1 norm bound by provesThe last equality uses . The derivative is a bounded linear functional of , so the required pathwise differentiability of a statistical functional holds, in particular relative to the statistical tangent set from part (b). Its derivative isFor the explicit bounded density tilts in part (b), this derivative is also obtained by direct integration, with no remainder term.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 2 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
For a pathwise differentiable statistical functional, an influence-function representer is a mean-zero function such that every admissible score function satisfies . The efficient influence function, also called the canonical gradient, is the unique such representer in the statistical tangent space. Equivalently, it is the orthogonal projection of any representer onto that statistical tangent space. The Pythagorean theorem in an inner-product space shows that it has the smallest squared L2 norm among all representers.
Here the statistical tangent space is all of . To verify the closure explicitly, take , truncate it to , and set . Then is bounded and centered, and in , by dominated convergence and the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. Part (c) supplies a representer already in this space. HenceIts variance is .
The closure must be taken in the density-weighted space . An unweighted reading of in the printed hint is false. For example, when , the function has and , so bounded centered truncations converge to it in ; nevertheless . This illustrates density of bounded centered scores and fixes the measure in the closure statement.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 2 e Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
For the bounded density tilt , differentiate the polynomial in :Since every score function is centered, the centered representer isA bounded baseline makes this a bounded mean-zero function, hence an element of . Thus it is the efficient influence function for the density fourth-power functional relative to the regular bounded density tilts. Its squared L2 norm is .
A bounded baseline alone does not make this functional differentiable along every quadratic-mean differentiable path. The derivative above is the intended regular-path answer. To see the need for the qualification, let and put on , extended by zero outside. For , defineEach is a nonnegative continuous probability density function, because its narrow bump has mass . Moreover,It is therefore a differentiable-in-quadratic-mean path with zero score function. YetThe density fourth-power functional is not even continuous along this statistical path, although every is individually bounded. Consequently no efficient influence function represents derivatives over the unrestricted class of all such paths.
One sufficient additional condition is a common bound for all small . Taylor expansion then bounds the fourth-power remainder by , whileTogether with the quadratic-mean to L1 density derivative, this gives . Under this local bound, or when the chosen statistical paths are the bounded density tilts, the boxed canonical gradient is fully justified. The counterexample is a spike obstruction to density-power differentiability.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Write and . Holding the nuisance parameter fixed, the parametric score function is the derivative with respect to of the one-observation log-likelihood. The joint probability density function isBecause , differentiating givesFor instance ensures a square-integrable score function. Its expected value is zero by independence and the centered normal distribution of the error. This is the Gaussian regression score.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 36 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Vary only the probability density function of , using with bounded and . The nuisance score function is , giving the statistical tangent setIts closed linear span is the nuisance tangent space of all centered functions of , by density of bounded centered scores.
The conditional expectation of the parametric score function given is zero:It is therefore orthogonal to this nuisance tangent space. Its orthogonal projection onto that space vanishes, so the efficient score is unchanged. By independence and ,These equal the parametric score function and Fisher information when is known. There is no loss of information from the unknown covariate density. This is adaptivity to an unknown covariate distribution; it follows from score orthogonality, without having to estimate the nuisance parameter.