New better than used in expectation 2026-10-14
A nonnegative lifetime or claim law is new better than used in expectation if its mean residual life at every age with positive survival is at most its original mean. The displayed equivalent inequality says that its equilibrium claim-size distribution is no larger in stochastic order than the original law. For an Erlang distribution of shape two and rate one, the two survival functions are and , so the condition holds.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 43 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
In the classical risk model, write the surplus aswhere is the claim-arrival Poisson process. The ruin time is . The ultimate ruin probability isThe positive root in the question is the adjustment coefficient. The Lundberg inequality and the Cramér–Lundberg approximation are, respectively,The interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor is finite here because lies strictly inside the finite domain of the moment-generating function; the claim-size density supplies the nonarithmetic condition for the asymptotic. Strict convexity makes its denominator positive. The approximation is an asymptotic statement, while the inequality is a bound at every nonnegative initial capital.
The inequality can also be seen directly from the exponential surplus martingale . Its expectation factor per unit time is zero in the exponent because . Apply the optional stopping theorem at , a bounded time. On , , so . Increasing proves the bound without stopping at an unbounded time.
For any nonnegative claim size, the Tonelli theorem applied to gives the exponential tail identityCombining it with the adjustment equation yieldsThe density integrates to one by the tail integral formula for moments. Thus has the equilibrium claim-size distribution, and the preceding formula says .
Under the given NBUE condition, the stochastic order comparison is at every . Apply the same exponential tail identity to both variables to obtainConsequentlyand rearrangement proves the adjustment-coefficient lower bound for NBUE claims:This uses the specified distributional comparison, not an unwarranted assumption that an arbitrary equilibrium claim law is always smaller than its original law.
For the final example, is the shape-two, rate-one gamma distribution, with , survival function , and moment-generating function for . With , the positive adjustment root satisfiesDividing out the zero root and simplifying gives . Only the smaller root is in the finite-transform interval , soThe equilibrium density and survival function areThus for every , proving that this claim law is new better than used in expectation. Finally the lower bound equals . Our exact root is larger because , equivalently . Henceverifying the requested bound for the example.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 209 2 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Write for the squared integral norm in question. The scaling property of the Fourier transform gives , which vanishes outside . Also . The condition does not imply , because need not be nonnegative.
Part (b), now for observations of , gives . Apply the Tonelli theorem to this nonnegative integrand, use the bound on , and change variables :The characteristic function is continuous and nonzero on the compact interval of integration, so for every . The Markov inequality gives, for every ,Consequently , including for any deterministic bandwidth sequence . The stochastic order follows directly from this uniform probability bound. Independence of and gives , explaining why division by is the Fourier deconvolution operation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 209 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The printed assertion is false as a supremum bound uniform over shrinking bandwidths. The supplied hint proves a pointwise stochastic order with constants uniform in . Taking the supremum inside the probability changes the problem: a growing number of spatial windows produces a logarithmic cost. We first establish the valid consequence of the hint, then give a counterexample satisfying the printed assumptions.
For , let , and . The Invariant distribution of an Itô diffusion has a probability density function bounded above and bounded away from zero on the required compact interval. Choosing therefore gives constants such that , uniformly for and .
For the centered function , . Outside , . The given second-moment estimate and the Chebyshev inequality yieldOn the event , the drift coefficient contributes an average whose error is at most , by Hölder continuity. The Itô isometry and stationarity give . Another use of the Chebyshev inequality provesThis also accounts for the zero-denominator convention through the first exceptional event. The bound proves pointwise , uniformly in the location's tail probabilities. It supplies no bound for the probability of a supremum over all locations.
For an explicit counterexample, take and the bounded globally Lipschitz functionIt has Lipschitz constant , exponent , and satisfies the inward-drift conditions with , . The stochastic differential equation has a unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. Its Invariant distribution of an Itô diffusion has densityThe exponent is zero on , equals when , and equals outside . This verifies integrability, positivity and a constant density on the central interval. Start the Itô diffusion in this Invariant distribution of an Itô diffusion to obtain the required stationary process.
Set and choose windows with centers , . Their intervals are disjoint and lie in , where the drift is zero. WriteThen whenever . The same occupation bound as above gives for . With , a union bound and the Chebyshev inequality implyThe quadratic variations are , and the cross quadratic covariations vanish since the windows are disjoint. Each clock tends to infinity almost surely: for any fixed window, the occupation estimate at times , followed by the Borel-Cantelli lemmas, gives . The Knight theorem for orthogonal martingales therefore represents using independent standard Brownian motions . This theorem is applied to the finite collection for each ; no growing-dimensional central limit theorem is being assumed.
On the preceding clock event, compare each time-changed Brownian motion with its value at deterministic time . The Brownian reflection principle and a union bound show that, for every fixed ,This bound does not require the Brownian motions to be independent of their clocks. In particular, in probability. The variables are independent random variables. Their Gaussian maximum exceeds with probability tending to one: for , integration of the normal density over gives , and henceSince on the clock event, it follows that, for some ,But for this bandwidth. Thus the error after subtraction of and multiplication by is not bounded in probability, contradicting the printed stochastic order. The valid pointwise bound above is provable; the uniform shrinking-bandwidth assertion is not. This counterexample shows why a uniform rate needs at least a enlargement of the noise scale. If is instead held fixed and constants may depend on , this counterexample does not contradict that different interpretation.