Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 34 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
A scoring rule in the reward convention gives for announcing the probability distribution and then observing . Under genuine belief , the expected score isA proper scoring rule satisfies for every admissible . A strictly proper scoring rule additionally requires equality only when the distributions coincide:The expected scores must be well defined. A loss convention reverses the inequalities, but the question uses rewards.