 Solution

Specify what “onset” means. I would distinguish the first local, perhaps short-lived subduction event from persistent, self-sustaining recycling in a connected global network of tectonic plates. Modern plate tectonics combines relatively rigid moving lithosphere, localized boundary deformation, seafloor spreading and sustained convergence. A sinking drip or a single imposed descending sheet is not sufficient evidence of that global regime. Different processes may become established at different times, so a transition interval may be a better hypothesis than an instantaneous worldwide switch.

Construct competing physical models. Solve conservation of mass, momentum and energy for evolving mantle convection and lithosphere, including temperature- and stress-dependent rheology, brittle yielding, plastic deformation, melting, compositional buoyancy and relevant phase changes. Use geodynamic modelling to compare a stagnant lid, episodic overturn, drip-dominated recycling and a sustained mobile lid. In a simplified incompressible creeping-flow framework,Here $\mathbf{u}$ is velocity, $p$ pressure, $\eta$ effective viscosity, $\dot{\mathbf{ϵ}}$ the strain-rate tensor, $\rho$ density, $\mathbf{g}$ gravitational acceleration, $c_p$ specific heat capacity, $k$ thermal conductivity, $H$ radiogenic power per unit mass, and $\Phi$ dissipative heating per unit volume. These equations are a framework: compressibility, latent heat and chemical transport may require additional terms. A simple yield stress law ${\tau }_y=C+\mu (\rho gz-P_f)$ represents cohesion $C$, friction coefficient $\mu$ and pore pressure $P_f$, illustrating why hydration and interface weakening can change the outcome.

Vary the early-planet controls rather than assuming the answer. Explore plausible initial mantle potential temperature, radiogenic heating, crust thickness and composition, water inventory, grain-size evolution, surface temperature, and boundary strength. Hotter mantle lowers viscosity but can produce thicker buoyant basaltic crust; it does not automatically make sustained subduction easier. A cold strong plate can transmit slab pull yet resist bending and initiation. Water weakening of rocks, melt-induced weakening, inherited faults and mechanically weak sediments can change this balance. Test proposed triggers such as mantle plume impingement or gravitational instability without presupposing an established global plate-force system.

Useful diagnostics include the Rayleigh number,with thermal expansion coefficient $\alpha$, layer thickness $D$, thermal diffusivity $\kappa$ and temperature contrast $\Delta T$, together with surface mobility, the localization of deformation, plate longevity, melt production and material recycling. A large Rayleigh number establishes vigorous convection under suitable conditions, not necessarily a mobile lid. A convincing model should sustain one-sided subduction, connected boundary evolution and seafloor spreading after any artificial trigger is removed. Compare initiation thresholds with continuation thresholds: hysteresis can allow an established regime to persist under conditions in which it would not spontaneously start.

As an example of the type of experiment, three-dimensional models have tested mantle plume-induced subduction initiation, finding sensitivity to plate buoyancy, magmatic weakening and hydration of the interface. The scientific use of such results here is to identify a feasible mechanism and its predicted signatures, not to adopt their success as a direct measurement of an ancient onset date.^[ref]

Connect a model regime to a date through independent evidence. Couple the experiments to candidate planetary cooling histories, then predict observable pressure-temperature-time paths, magmatic compositions, deformation patterns and recycling rates for each regime. If independently dated rocks constrain a thermal or compositional state, ask which regimes can reproduce that state and the observed geological associations. Repeat over uncertain initial conditions and constitutive parameters, check numerical resolution, and compare two- and three-dimensional results where geometry matters. Models that prescribe a descending slab, fix plate velocity, or insert a weak boundary may be excellent forward models of a working subduction zone but do not demonstrate spontaneous initiation.

The result is a conditional statement: persistent plate tectonics is physically feasible under a range of conditions, and dated geological observations may favor that range at a particular time. Uncertain cooling histories, several feasible regimes and uncertain rheology prevent numerical feasibility alone from dating onset. The strongest constraint comes when the same parameter range explains multiple independently dated observations and alternative regimes fail those tests.