For the geometrical estimate, take the stated horizontal
equinox irradiance to
set a constant direct-normal
reference. The
equinox solar-noon
elevation is
αe=90∘−51.75∘=38.25∘, so this
reference is
In=1/sinαe≃1.62kWm−2.
A south-facing panel with tilt
β=41.1∘ has noon incidence factor
cos(51.75∘−δ−41.1∘), where
δ=±23.44∘. Relative to the
1kWm−2 plane-of-array rating,
PJune≃5sin38.25∘cos12.79∘=7.9kW,PDecember≃5sin38.25∘cos34.09∘=6.7kW.
These are the results of that
idealized geometrical normalization, not credible seasonal
production forecasts. Its inferred direct-normal
irradiance already exceeds the approximately
1.36kWm−2 solar irradiance outside the
atmosphere, so the supplied horizontal
benchmark cannot describe
a purely direct noon beam literally. Real direct and diffuse
fractions, atmospheric
attenuation at low winter
elevation,
cell temperature and
inverter clipping are unspecified. An alternative assumption of
1kWm−2 direct-normal
irradiance gives approximately
4.88 and
4.14 kW.
A physically unique maximum cannot be inferred without an
irradiance model.
For
a national scale estimate, take
UK area 2.44×1011m2,
population 6.6×107, and annual
mean solar input
100Wm−2. Covering five percent with twenty-percent-efficient modules gives
NdayE∼1000(6.6×107)0.05(2.44×1011)(0.20)(100)(24)≃89kWhperson−1day−1.
This is comparable with an order-
100 kWh daily per-person
primary-energy budget, and much larger than
electricity use alone, of order
10-
15 kWh per person per
day. It is
a gross
area-and-
flux estimate: access land, shading, seasonal storage, curtailment and conversion between
primary energy and electrical end use all
affect its interpretation.