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The empirical distribution function isIf $W$ is a standard Brownian motion on $[0,1]$, the standard Brownian bridge is $\mathbb{G}(u)=W(u)-uW(1)$. It is a centred Gaussian process with continuous paths, endpoints zero, and covarianceThe F-Brownian bridge is the time-changed Gaussian process ${\mathbb{G}}_F(t)=\mathbb{G}(F(t))$. Its covariance is $F(\min (s,t))-F(s)F(t)$, exactly the covariance of the empirical distribution process ${\alpha }_n=\sqrt{n}(F_n-F)$.

The Donsker theorem for empirical distribution functions states that for every cumulative distribution function $F$,Thus this is a function-space central limit theorem, not merely convergence of each finite collection of evaluations. The limit is a tight centred Gaussian process. No continuity of $F$ is required for this statement; a jump of $F$ can give a jump of ${\mathbb{G}}_F$.

For precision, ${\ell }^{\infty }(\mathbb{R})$ is generally nonseparable, and the finite-sample process need not be a Borel-measurable random element for its norm topology. The displayed convergence in distribution has the usual empirical-process interpretation: for every bounded continuous real functional $H$, the outer expectation and inner expectation of $H({\alpha }_n)$ converge to $\mathbb{E}H({\mathbb{G}}_F)$. The outer expectation is the infimum of expectations of measurable majorants, and the inner expectation is its negative applied to $-H({\alpha }_n)$. For measurable real statistics this gives ordinary convergence in distribution. The limit is tight and separably supported: $g\mapsto g\circ F$ maps the separable space of continuous bridge paths continuously into ${\ell }^{\infty }(\mathbb{R})$.

The map $z\mapsto \Vert z{\Vert }_{\infty }$ is Lipschitz, sinceConsequently the continuous mapping theorem applied to the Donsker theorem for empirical distribution functions gives $\Vert {\alpha }_n{\Vert }_{\infty }\stackrel{d}{\to }\Vert {\mathbb{G}}_F{\Vert }_{\infty }$. The statistic on the left is measurable: both $F_n$ and $F$ are right-continuous, so its supremum equals the supremum over rational $t$.

If $F$ is continuous, its limits at $-\infty$ and $+\infty$ are zero and one. The intermediate value theorem therefore shows that $F(\mathbb{R})$ contains $(0,1)$, even when $F$ is not strictly increasing. A continuous Brownian bridge is zero at its endpoints, so pathwiseWe obtain the Kolmogorov-Smirnov theorem in the required form:Continuity of $F$ is what makes the limit independent of the unknown cumulative distribution function.

Choose $c_{\alpha }$ with $\mathbb{P}(Z\le c_{\alpha })=1-\alpha$. The law of $Z$ has no atoms. For example, the Brownian reflection principle and conditioning a Brownian motion on its endpoint give $\mathbb{P}(\max \mathbb{G}>a)=e^{-2a^2}$ for $a>0$: the reflected endpoint density at zero is the normal density at $2a$, divided by its value at zero. Hence both one-sided maxima have continuous laws, and an atom of $Z$ would require an atom of one of them. Also $\mathbb{P}(Z=0)=0$, since $\mathbb{G}(1/2)$ is nondegenerate. Thus such quantiles give the desired limiting coverage.

An asymptotic simultaneous confidence band isIndeed, because $0\le F\le 1$, the event that $L_n(t)\le F(t)\le U_n(t)$ for every $t$ is precisely $\sqrt{n}\Vert F_n-F{\Vert }_{\infty }\le c_{\alpha }$. Its probability tends to $1-\alpha$. This is simultaneous coverage over all real $t$, rather than separate pointwise confidence intervals.

A return level plot graphs $T$ horizontally and $z_T$ vertically, often using a logarithmic scale for $T$. To read it, choose a return period, move up to the curve, and read the corresponding return level. Conversely, a threshold's horizontal coordinate gives the reciprocal of its annual exceedance probability. The usual plot of fitted quantiles against return periods, and optional pointwise confidence intervals, are documented in Mathieu Ribatet, POT package: return level plot.

The near-straight shape has a mathematical explanation: since $-\log (1-1/T)\sim 1/T$ as $T\to \infty$, the Gumbel distribution gives $z_T=\mu +b\log T+o(1)$. Multiplying a large return period by ten therefore increases the return level by approximately $b\log 10$, about $4.605$ units for this toy curve. A curve indexed by rarity puts several thresholds on one common scale while retaining their measurement units.

For a fitted curve, a pointwise confidence interval concerns uncertainty in the estimated quantile at a specified $T$; it is distinct from a prediction interval for a future annual sample maximum, and pointwise intervals need not form a simultaneous confidence band. A far-right curve value can also be an extrapolation beyond the observation record: extending the line adds no observations to support the chosen tail model. The diagram above uses fixed toy parameters, so it shows neither estimation uncertainty nor an observational record. Its interpretation throughout assumes the stated annual block and stationarity.