Exponential martingale of a random walk ($e^{\theta S_n-n\kappa (\theta )}$)

For a random walk with independent and identically distributed random variables as increments and finite moment-generating function at $\theta$, put $\kappa (\theta )=\log \mathbb{E}{e}^{\theta X_1}$. Then $e^{\theta S_n-n\kappa (\theta )}$ is a martingale by conditioning on the next independent increment. In particular, if $r>0$ and $\mathbb{E}{r}^{X_1}=1$, then $r^{S_n}$ is a martingale. Stopping at a finite interval exit can make this process bounded, allowing the dominated convergence theorem to justify passage from bounded stopping times to the exit time.

For a random walk with independent and identically distributed random variables as increments, let $M_n=e^{\lambda S_n}/\varphi (\lambda {)}^n$ define its finite-time exponential tilting. Under the tilted law, $L_n=M_n^{-1}$ is a martingale: the conditional mean of $\varphi (\lambda )e^{-\lambda X_{n+1}}$ is one. For a stopping time $T$, partition $\{T\le n\}$ into $\{T=j\}$ and apply the tower property of conditional expectation to obtain the displayed identity. Only finite-time absolute continuity of measures is needed; there need not be an infinite-horizon likelihood-ratio density.

Let $S_n$ have integrable, mean-zero independent and identically distributed random variables as increments, taking integer values at most one, with $\mathbb{P}(X_1=1)>0$. For a positive integer $b$, put $T_b=\inf \{n:S_n=b\}$ and $M(\tau )=\mathbb{E}{e}^{\tau X_1}$, $\tau >0$. Then $T_b$ is finite almost surely. Indeed, $b-S_{n\wedge T_b}$ is a nonnegative martingale; finite convergence on $\{T_b=\infty \}$ would force its integer increments eventually to vanish, contrary to the Borel-Cantelli lemmas applied to $\{X_n=1\}$.

The exponential martingale of a random walk $e^{\tau S_n}/M(\tau {)}^n$ stopped at $T_b$ is bounded by $e^{\tau b}$ because $S_{n\wedge T_b}\le b$ and $M(\tau )\ge 1$. The dominated convergence theorem therefore preserves its mean one at the limit and proves the displayed first-passage time transform. This argument accommodates arbitrarily large negative jumps; the restriction concerns upward jumps. For a simple symmetric random walk, $M(\tau )=\cosh \tau$, giving $\mathbb{E}{e}^{-\alpha T_b}=(e^{\alpha }-\sqrt{e^{2\alpha }-1}{)}^b$.

For independent and identically distributed random variables with law $N(-1,1)$, $e^{2S_n}$ is a nonnegative martingale, since the increment's moment-generating function equals one at parameter two. The Doob maximal inequality gives $\mathbb{P}(Z>t)\le e^{-2t}$ for the all-time maximum $Z\ge 0$. Integrating the tail gives the displayed bound. For $b\le 0$, $e^{bZ}\le 1$. The strong law of large numbers guarantees finiteness and attainment of the maximum because $S_n\to -\infty$.