For a continuous-time Markov chain whose jump times tend to infinity, the chain and its jump chain have the same directed paths of positive-probability jumps. They are therefore irreducible simultaneously, and a state is recurrent for one exactly when it is recurrent for the other: the event of returning after departure depends only on the sequence of visited states.
A time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain on a countable state space is a stochastic process with the Markov property: conditional on the current state, the law of its future depends on neither its past nor the current time. In the usual conservative, nonexplosive setting its sample paths are right-continuous step functions. Its Q-matrix has for , , and infinitesimal transition probabilities for .
On entering , the holding time has distribution ; independently, the next state is with probability . The successive states form the jump chain, whose transition probabilities are
If , the state is absorbing, its holding time is infinite, and the jump-chain convention is . Nonexplosion ensures this construction defines the process for all finite times rather than accumulating infinitely many jumps in finite time.
Because almost surely, no infinite portion of the jump chain is hidden inside a finite time interval. After either chain leaves a state , the event that it ever returns is therefore the same event for both chains. Hence irreducibility and recurrence pass between a CTMC and its jump chain gives
The jump chain of is exactly : from it visits next with probability . Consequently the two chains have exactly the same directed paths of positive-probability transitions. Thus
Let be an invariant distribution for the continuous-time Markov chain. Using , its stationarity equation becomes
Thus the measure with weights is invariant for the irreducible positive-recurrent jump chain. Its invariant distribution is unique, so . Normalization gives the invariant-measure transfer between a jump chain and a CTMC formula
The denominator is finite and nonzero because . Thus is a probability distribution and is positive recurrent.
The total jump rate is at zero and at . Hence the jump chain has transition probabilities
and, for ,
All other entries vanish.
Here the total holding rate is
and therefore the jump chain has state-independent transitions
It is an upward biased random walk on . By the strong law of large numbers, almost surely, so . The jump chain, and hence , is transient.
Counting measure is invariant for this jump chain: for every , its incoming mass is . The invariant-measure transfer between a jump chain and a CTMC therefore gives an invariant measure proportional to . Since
the normalized invariant distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain is
This does not contradict transience because an invariant distribution of an explosive chain need not imply positive recurrence.
It remains to verify explosion. Starting from zero, the probability that the biased walk ever reaches is . Once it reaches any state, its probability of returning after departure is
so its expected total number of visits to that state, conditional on reaching it, is . If is the number of visits to , then
Consequently the expected sum of all holding times is
The nonnegative random variable is therefore finite almost surely. By explosion by summable holding times, makes infinitely many jumps by time , so it is explosive.
Write for the total rate of leaving . The jump chain of a continuous-time Markov chain is the discrete-time chain recording the states occupied after successive jumps. Its transition probabilities are
whenever .
The chain is irreducible if every state can be reached from every other state with positive probability. A state is recurrent if, after leaving , the process returns to with probability one; an irreducible chain is recurrent when one, and hence every, state is recurrent.
The continuous-time Markov chain and its jump chain have exactly the same successive states. If is transient, it visits each state only finitely often, so is transient. If is recurrent, it visits a fixed state infinitely often. At those visits, has independent exponential holding times of rate . Their sum diverges almost surely, so explosion cannot occur before all those returns. Hence returns to infinitely often and is recurrent. Thus, for an irreducible chain,
Put . The jump chain records the successive states visited by and has transition probabilities
By the exponential holding-time construction, conditional on the current state , the destination of the next jump has this distribution independently of the earlier path. Hence the jump chain has the Markov property.
For , the total holding rate is , and the jump chain moves upward and downward with probabilities
while it moves from zero to one with probability one. Thus it is a reflected nearest-neighbour random walk. Recurrence is unaffected by the holding times, so it is recurrent exactly when . In the given range,
For the jump chain is transient.
The detailed-balance equations are
where the formula also covers the boundary . Hence every candidate invariant measure has
At this is summable and the chain is nonexplosive, giving
For it is not summable. When , it is a summable formal solution of , but the chain explodes, so it is not an invariant probability for the minimal process; this is precisely the caveat in invariant distribution of an explosive chain. Consequently
It remains to classify explosion. At , the recurrent jump chain visits zero infinitely often. The holding time at zero has rate one, so nonexplosion from recurrent visits to a slow state shows that the accumulated time is infinite almost surely.
For , let be the total number of visits of the transient jump chain to . Using the stated uniform visit bound and writing for ,
because . Conditional on the jump path, this is the expected sum of all holding times, so the total lifetime is finite almost surely. This is explosion of an upward-biased walk with geometrically increasing rates. Therefore