Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 ib Paper 4 17H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Here has the binomial distribution , so, up to a factor independent of , the likelihood function isFor , differentiating the log-likelihood givesand the boundary cases give the same formula. Thus the binomial proportion maximum-likelihood estimator is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 iii Paper 326 3 2 a Solution 2026-09-29
The noise has the product Laplace distribution densitywhich is normalized because . By translation invariance of Lebesgue measure, the conditional law of has densityHence an associated likelihood function isThe map is measurable because is measurable and vector subtraction is continuous. Composition with the continuous norm and exponential functions proves that is jointly measurable.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 ib Paper 1 18H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
LetThus patients recover during month , while survive that month without recovery. The likelihood function is
The independent prior densities are proportional to . Beta-binomial conjugacy therefore leaves the coordinates posteriorly independent, with
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 ib Paper 2 6H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
LetIgnoring the immaterial choice of density values at the sample points, the likelihood function isBetween consecutive order statistics, is constant while decreases with . A maximum can therefore be moved to the left endpoint of one of these intervals. With an equivalent version using , the maximum is attained at a sample order statistic. Thus the maximum-likelihood estimator coincides with one of .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 219 1 b Solution 2026-09-28
Write the Cepheid measurement as , where , and define the calibrated absolute magnitude dataThus has a multivariate normal distribution with mean and covariance matrix
The Hubble law and the definition of distance modulus giveConsequently, withthe Hubble-flow observations are independent random variables satisfying . Apart from a factor independent of the parameters, the joint likelihood function isThe expression extends by continuity to a singular limiting covariance such as .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 216 1 a Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
The likelihood function and prior distribution give the posterior densityCompleting the square in the quadratic form givesThus Gaussian conjugacy for a normal linear model yields
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ii Paper 4 13J i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Let be the first team's goal count in match , let be row of the design matrix, and let be the regression coefficient vector. The fitted Poisson regression assumes that the are independent random variables withThe likelihood function maximized by
glm is therefore Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 219 1 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
All three sets of statistics are independent. With , , and , their likelihood function, up to a parameter-independent factor, is
Piecewise-constant covariate approximation 2026-10-06
Approximate changing covariates by constant values on observation intervals. The generator matrix is then constant on each interval, with transition matrix . Multiplying the relevant entries gives a conditional likelihood function for discretely observed states.
Poisson change-point posterior 2026-10-06
For an Inhomogeneous Poisson process whose known positive intensity changes from to at an unknown time , the ordered arrival-time likelihood function isUnder a uniform prior, each interval between successive arrivals has an exponential posterior density with rate in the exponent . Its integrated weights allow exact interval selection followed by a truncated exponential draw; when the two rates coincide, the Bayesian posterior is uniform and the data contain no change-time information.
A pseudo-marginal Metropolis–Hastings algorithm replaces an intractable likelihood function by a nonnegative unbiased likelihood estimator and includes its auxiliary randomness in the state. If for , the extended target is proportional to . An independence proposal for new auxiliary randomness cancels the factors in the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability. On rejection the old estimate must be retained. Integrating the extended target gives the desired marginal posterior distribution exactly.
Random-slope linear mixed model Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-07
The Gaussian model with and independent has marginal law . Its group coefficients are integrated out of the marginal likelihood function. The special random-slope model uses predictor values in the grouping columns of .
Restricted maximum likelihood 2026-10-05
Restricted maximum likelihood estimates covariance matrix parameters from linear combinations of the data whose distribution does not involve the fixed mean coefficients. It differs from a restricted maximum-likelihood estimator obtained by maximizing an ordinary likelihood function under a null hypothesis.
Stationary Gaussian AR1 likelihood 2026-10-05
For , independent innovations and stationary initial variance , the full likelihood function isConditioning on gives a different likelihood.
Unbiased likelihood estimator 2026-10-06
An unbiased likelihood estimator has expectation equal to the likelihood function at each parameter. A pseudo-marginal algorithm requires this estimator to be nonnegative. Importance sampling provides for independent random variables , provided the proposal covers the target support. Relative variance affects the mixing time even though unbiasedness guarantees the correct marginal target.
Zeros trick 2026-10-06
A zeros trick implements a positive likelihood function by adding an observed zero with Poisson distribution mean . If this mean is nonnegative throughout the parameter support, its likelihood is and yields the intended Bayesian posterior. The constant must be independent of the parameter; arbitrary clipping changes the target.