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For finite random variables $X,Y$, let $P_e$ be the error probability of maximum a posteriori decoding of $X$ from $Y$. Then $P_e\le H(X\mid Y)/2$ when conditional entropy is measured in bits. At each positive-probability output $y$, the optimum success probability is the largest posterior atom ${\Pi }_y$, so its conditional error is $1-{\Pi }_y$. Apply the entropy lower bound from the largest atom to that posterior to get $2(1-{\Pi }_y)\le H(X\mid Y=y)$, then average over $Y$. An arbitrary decoder need not satisfy this bound; it uses the optimum conditional decision rule.

Fano's inequality turns remaining uncertainty into a constraint on decision errors. If an observation leaves many plausible answers, a decoder cannot usually recover the answer reliably. Its elegant idea is to separate two uncertainties: whether the guess was wrong, and which alternative was correct when it was wrong.

Let $X,Y$ be discrete random variables, with $X$ taking values in a finite alphabet $\mathcal{X}$ of cardinality $M\ge 2$. Choose any deterministic decoder $\hat{X}=f(Y)$ whose output lies in $\mathcal{X}$, and define its average error probability $p_e=\mathbb{P}\{\hat{X}\ne X\}$. With base-two logarithms, Fano's inequality statesHere $H(X\mid Y)$ is conditional entropy and $h_2$ is binary entropy, with $0{\log }_{2}0=0$ at the endpoints. Both sides are measured in bits; using natural logarithms throughout gives the same inequality in nats. No uniform source, independence of $X,Y$, or optimality of the decoder is assumed. Requiring its output to belong to the same alphabet is what leaves at most $M-1$ alternatives after an error.^[ref]

For an exact toy example, give $X$ the discrete uniform distribution on $\{A,B,C,D\}$. A channel reports $Y=X$ with probability $1-q$ and reports each of the other three symbols with probability $q/3$, where $0\le q\le 1$. Use the decoder $f(y)=y$. The output is uniform, and the conditional probabilities after any report $y$ areThus $p_e=q$ and direct calculation of the conditional entropy givesThis is equality in Fano's inequality for every $q\in [0,1]$. At $q=0.3$, each report leaves probabilities $(0.7,0.1,0.1,0.1)$, up to their order, and $H(X\mid Y)\approx 1.3568$ bits. The two contributions are $h_2(0.3)\approx 0.8813$ bits for the error flag and $0.3{\log }_{2}3\approx 0.4755$ bits for identifying the correct alternative after an error. These are theoretical probabilities, not measured data.

The identity decoder in this example minimizes error only for $0\le q\le 3/4$: its guessed symbol has the largest posterior probability exactly when $1-q\ge q/3$. At $q=3/4$, $X,Y$ are independent random variables and all four guesses tie. For $q>3/4$, guessing any one of the three other symbols has error probability $1-q/3<q$. Equality in Fano's inequality therefore does not certify an optimal decoder.

For usefulness, combine $h_2(p_e)\le 1$ with ${\log }_2(M-1)\le {\log }_{2}M$ to obtain the simpler consequenceFor a uniform $X$, $H(X\mid Y)={\log }_{2}M-I(X;Y)$, so this becomes $p_e\ge \max \{0,1-(I(X;Y)+1)/{\log }_{2}M\}$. This connects mutual information to unavoidable decision error in channel coding or classification in statistical learning; it can rule out reliable recovery regardless of the chosen decoder.^[ref]

The sharper right-hand side $F_M(p)=h_2(p)+p{\log }_2(M-1)$ increases from zero to ${\log }_{2}M$ on $0\le p\le 1-1/M$, then decreases: in the interior, $F_M^{\prime }(p)={\log }_2((M-1)(1-p)/p)$. When interpreting the inequality by inverting a curve, use its increasing branch to obtain a lower error threshold. A decoder that chooses a largest posterior probability, as in maximum a posteriori decoding, always has $p_e\le 1-1/M$, since the largest of $M$ conditional probabilities is at least $1/M$. Arbitrary decoders can have larger error. In particular, low conditional entropy does not force every decoder to work well: with a fair binary $X$ and $Y=X$, the rule $f(Y)=1-Y$ has $p_e=1$ even though $H(X\mid Y)=0$. Fano's inequality supplies a constraint, not an exact error prediction for each rule.

For a discrete random variable $X$ with a finite or countable alphabet and probability mass function $p_x=\mathbb{P}(X=x)$, define $p_{\max }={\max }_x{p}_x$. Its min-entropy, using base-two logarithms, isThe unit is the bit. This is the smallest information content of any possible outcome: it records the easiest outcome to predict, whereas Shannon entropy averages information content over all outcomes. A normalized countable probability mass function has an attained positive maximum, so $H_{\infty }(X)$ is finite even when Shannon entropy is infinite. Outcomes of zero probability cannot minimize the surprise and are omitted from the minimum; including extra impossible symbols changes neither quantity.^[ref]

Suppose someone knows the probability mass function but receives no observation correlated with $X$, and must name exactly one outcome. Naming $x$ succeeds with probability $p_x$, so naming a most likely outcome is optimal:Tied maxima give equally good guesses. Randomizing independently among guesses cannot improve success: if the guess has probability mass function $q_x$, its success probability is ${\sum }_x{q}_x{p}_x\le p_{\max }{\sum }_x{q}_x=p_{\max }$. This is the simplest instance of maximum a posteriori decoding. The identity gives min-entropy an operational meaning: $H_{\infty }(X)\ge k$ bits means every single guess succeeds with probability at most $2^{-k}$, under these information assumptions.^[ref]

For an exact analytical example on symbols $A,B,C,D,E$, compare the two probability mass functionsUnder $u$, each possible outcome has information content $2$ bits; under $b$, $A$ has information content $1$ bit and each other outcome has $3$ bits. Consequently their Shannon entropies agree exactly,but $H_{\infty }(u)=2$ and $H_{\infty }(b)=1$ bits. A best single guess therefore succeeds with probability $1/4$ under $u$ and $1/2$ under $b$. The same average surprise can hide a factor of two in immediate predictability. The zero entry in $u$ contributes zero to Shannon entropy, using $0{\log }_{2}0=0$.

For the discrete uniform distribution on $m$ possible outcomes, $H_{\infty }={\log }_{2}m$ bits and the best single guess succeeds with probability $1/m$. A certain outcome has $H_{\infty }=0$ and success probability one. Thus min-entropy is useful when a common outcome could defeat an attempt to make outputs unpredictable, even if rare alternatives raise Shannon entropy.

For cryptography, this unconditional calculation alone does not certify security: an observer might know $X$ already. If a report $Y=X$ reveals a uniform four-outcome source, its unconditional min-entropy remains $2$ bits but guessing after the report succeeds with probability one. For finite classical reports, the appropriate success calculation uses conditional probabilities and maximum a posteriori decoding:The conditional entropy $H(X\mid Y)$ instead averages remaining surprise. A security argument must specify the observer's information and the protocol's required guarantee; neither unconditional min-entropy nor Shannon entropy supplies those assumptions.

Maximum a posteriori decoding chooses an input with the largest posterior probability given the received word. By Bayes' theorem this maximizes $P(X=x)p(y\mid x)$ over candidate codewords, minimizing the average probability of a decoding error.

Given an output $y$ of positive probability, the ideal observer chooses a symbol maximizing the posterior:Ties may be broken arbitrarily, and the choice at an impossible output does not matter. This is maximum a posteriori decoding. It minimizes conditional error at each $y$, because a deterministic decision $x$ is correct with probability $P(X=x\mid Y=y)$; a randomized decision is a weighted average of these success probabilities and cannot exceed their maximum.

Write ${\Pi }_y={\max }_{x}P(X=x\mid Y=y)$. Then $w(y)=1-{\Pi }_y$. Applying the two cases from part (b) to the posterior distribution givesAverage with respect to the output law to obtain the conditional entropy upper bound on minimum decoding error:This is an upper bound on the optimum error probability; it does not hold for arbitrary deliberately poor decoding rules.

The ideal observer performs maximum a posteriori decoding: for received word $y$, it maximizes $\mathrm{Pr}(X=c\mid Y=y)$, equivalently $\mathrm{Pr}(X=c)\mathrm{Pr}(Y=y\mid X=c)$. Maximum-likelihood decoding maximizes the latter conditional likelihood alone. Minimum-distance decoding minimizes the Hamming distance $d(c,y)$. Ties may be resolved arbitrarily among maximizers.

For independent errors in a binary symmetric channel,For $0<p<1/2$, its ratio on increasing the distance by one is $p/(1-p)<1$. Thus maximum-likelihood decoding and minimum-distance decoding select exactly the same codewords. At the allowed endpoint $p=0$, they agree on a possible observation $y\in C$; impossible observations have zero likelihood for every codeword, so an arbitrary maximum-likelihood tie rule need not agree with minimum distance. This qualification is needed for the literal assumption $p<1/2$.

For the specified observation, the Hamming distances from 000 and 111 are two and one. Their likelihoods are $3/64$ and $9/64$, respectively. After multiplying by the priors, their joint probabilities are $12/320$ and $9/320$, so their posterior probabilities are $4/7$ and $3/7$. Therefore