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Normal-normal conjugacy with known observation variance

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Bayesian normal model
Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For independent Xi​∼N(θ,σ2) and prior θ∼N(μ,ν2), the posterior has variance and mean
vn​=(σ2n​+ν21​)−1,mn​=vn​(σ2nX​+ν2μ​).
(1)
As n→∞, mn​−X=Op​(n−1) and vn1/2​∼σ/n​, so fixed-level posterior credible intervals agree asymptotically with the corresponding known-variance confidence intervals.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2020 / ib / Paper 1 / 6H / Solution
  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2023 / ib / Paper 2 / 6H / d / Solution

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  • codex/normal-normal-conjugacy

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