Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 218 5 a Solution 2026-09-28
For fixed , letting gives ridge regression, including ordinary least squares when ; letting forces every coefficient to zero. For fixed , letting gives the Lasso. Letting both penalties vanish gives an ordinary least squares solution, unique when has full column rank and otherwise potentially nonunique or path-dependent.
When , the term is strictly convex. Its sum with the convex squared loss and penalty is strictly convex and coercive, so the elastic net solution exists and is unique.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 225 4 a i Solution 2026-09-28
PutWith the by design matrix , the scalar-on-function linear model becomesThe ordinary least squares estimator based on the truncated model isThus the omitted tail produces the conditional bias .
LetThe supplied weak law of large numbers and noise limit giveFor a general fixed basis, need not vanish, so the retained coefficients are asymptotically biased and the estimator is inconsistent even for . Moreover, with fixed it cannot recover the full slope when .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 218 2 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The solid curve is the test errorand the dashed curve is the training error . As the horizontal coordinate tends to , , so every penalized slope tends to zero and . The two limits are thereforerespectively.
As the horizontal coordinate tends to , and the fit approaches the ordinary least squares fit . Hence the solid curve tends to , which the plot shows is approximately .
Rank-deficient ordinary least squares Created 2026-09-29 Updated 2026-10-06
If a design matrix has deficient rank, every ordinary least squares minimizer has the form with , where is the Moore-Penrose inverse. Hence the fitted values are unique but the coefficients are not: the minimizers form an affine subspace of dimension .
Residual sum of squares Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The residual sum of squares measures how far the observed responses lie from their fitted values. If is the th regression residual, thenIt is the squared Euclidean norm of the regression residual vector. Squaring prevents positive and negative deviations from cancelling and gives large deviations more weight. In the constructed five-point example in linear regression, the regression residuals are , so the residual sum of squares is .
Ordinary least squares minimizes the residual sum of squares over the chosen linear regression family; ridge regression minimizes the residual sum of squares plus a penalty. Consequently the ridge regression fit can have a larger residual sum of squares than the ordinary least squares fit on exactly the same design matrix. For the one-predictor construction in ridge regression, the residual sum of squares rises from to when the penalty changes from to ; that increase is the cost of shrinking the fitted slope.
Dividing the residual sum of squares by gives the training error for squared-error loss, not an estimate based on fresh responses. Its units are squared response units, and it adds across observations, so raw totals need not be comparable across different response scales or sample sizes. Comparing fits to the same responses is useful, but choosing a ridge regression penalty by minimum training residual sum of squares favors the unpenalized fit. Assess prediction error using a validation set or cross-validation instead.[ref]
Model selection and validation 1: Cross-validation. slides 6–8 and 11–14: fresh-response error, training error and held-out scoring
Ridge regression Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Ridge regression fits a linear regression model while penalizing the size of its slope regression coefficients. For a fixed design matrix containing the slope predictors, observed responses , and an unpenalized regression intercept , the objective isHere is the all-ones vector, and is the squared Euclidean norm of the slopes alone. The first term is the residual sum of squares; the second implements regularization. No random-error assumption is needed to define this fit. The convention is a summed squared-error loss: writing the objective as gives the same fit when .[ref]
Modern regression 1: Ridge regression. slides 5 and 7: summed squared-error objective and unpenalized intercept
For an exact example, reuse the constructed pairs from linear regression. Their sample means are and , and the centered cross-products are and . ThusThe ordinary least squares line has slope and residual sum of squares . At , ridge regression has slope , regression intercept , and residual sum of squares ; at these become , , and . Every line passes through : the penalty reduces the slope while retaining the response sample mean.
The computational benefit is visible after predictor centering. Write for the design matrix with each column's sample mean subtracted, and . The unpenalized intercept in ridge regression gives , and the closed-form ridge regression estimator solvesFor any nonzero vector and , . This positive-definite matrix is therefore invertible even when lacks full column rank, including repeated columns or . The unique penalized slopes resolve the ambiguity of rank-deficient ordinary least squares; they do not supply evidence about slope directions absent from the data. This makes ridge regression useful for multicollinearity.[ref]
High-Dimensional Regression: Ridge. p. 1, equations (1)–(2): uniqueness for positive penalty regardless of design rank
Predictor centering and scaling serve different purposes. Centering handles the free regression intercept. Scaling determines what counts as a large slope: replacing by changes its coefficient to for the same predictions, changing its contribution to an unweighted penalty. A common convention forms standard scores using each nonconstant predictor's sample standard deviation , then penalizes slopes in those coordinates. Since , this is the weighted penalty in the original units. Constant columns have and must be removed before this scaling. Scaling is a modelling choice; equal penalties in original units and in standardized units define different fits.[ref]
Modern regression 1: Ridge regression. slide 7: center predictors, leave the intercept free and scale predictors to sample variance one
The singular value decomposition explains the shrinkage. If is the compact decomposition using the positive singular values , with columns of , thenThe principal-component shrinkage by ridge regression factors are between and : directions with small singular values are damped most. As , the fitted values approach ; the vanishing-penalty ridge limit recovers the ordinary least squares fitted vector as , even if the slope estimates at zero penalty are nonunique. The covariance and bias of a ridge regression estimator describes the resulting bias-variance tradeoff. A penalty can reduce variance of an estimator while introducing bias of an estimator; the unbounded directional risk of fixed ridge shrinkage rules out a uniform improvement for a fixed positive penalty over all possible signals.[ref]
For a second exact construction, choose a centered orthonormal set of three vectors,and set and . The squared singular values are and . At , the fitted coordinates along are , retaining and of their ordinary least squares values . At they become , retaining and . The unfittable component contributes to every residual sum of squares, giving total values , , and at penalties . These are constructed fits, not measured prediction results.
Exact synthetic ridge shrinkage retains the strong singular direction longer than the weak one
. Details. The penalty is a hyperparameter, so fitting slopes at a fixed value and selecting that value are separate tasks. Use a validation set or K-fold cross-validation to compare candidate penalties by held-out squared-error loss. In each split, compute predictor sample means and scales from that split's training data, apply the same transformation to its validation set, and refit the slopes; using held-out information in preprocessing introduces data leakage. Minimum training residual sum of squares cannot select useful shrinkage: ordinary least squares already attains the smallest possible value.[ref]
Model selection and validation 1: Cross-validation. slides 5–8 and 11–14: tuning for prediction, training error and refitting on each training fold
After model selection, refit on all training data with the selected penalty. A separate test set or nested cross-validation assesses the entire selection procedure; a low selected validation score alone is no performance guarantee.[ref]On Over-fitting in Model Selection and Subsequent Selection Bias in Performance Evaluation by Gavin C. Cawley and others. pp. 2079–2080: selection as part of fitting and nested assessment
Sum of squares 2026-10-13
A sum of squares adds the squares of numbers for specified real numbers . It is nonnegative and vanishes exactly when every term is zero. For the coordinates of a vector, it is the squared Euclidean norm; for regression residuals, it gives the residual sum of squares minimized by ordinary least squares.
Training error Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Training error is the average loss function evaluated on the observations used to fit the prediction rule. It is the empirical risk of the fitted rule on its own training data. With squared-error loss, it is the average squared regression residual, measuring fit to observed responses rather than performance on fresh responses. Flexible fitting usually makes it optimistically biased for prediction error, as quantified by prediction optimism.
For a reproducible polynomial regression example, take , , and the known noiseless target . Construct responses with fixed disturbancesOrdinary least squares over polynomials of polynomial degree at most 1, 2, and 7 gives training errors , , and . The monotone improvement follows because these candidate families are nested: every smaller-degree fit remains available in the larger family. This argument concerns minimum training error, not generalization, and assumes the fitting mathematical optimization is solved. Degrees 2 and 7 fitted instead to the exact noiseless responses have mathematically zero training error; the script obtains approximately and from rounding. Extra flexibility alone does not force overfitting.
Two-predictor variance inflation Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
For two centered predictors with squared norms and correlation coefficient , the ordinary least squares estimate of either partial slope has variance . Compared with the same predictor alone and the same error variance, the inflation factor is . The eigenvalues of the slope Gram matrix are and .
Unbounded directional risk of fixed ridge shrinkage Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
For fixed positive ridge regression penalty, choose a unit eigenvector of with eigenvalue , and signal . The directional ridge risk is , whereas ordinary least squares has risk . Letting grow makes the ridge squared bias arbitrarily large.

