Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2001 / iii / Paper 30 / 3 / a

Principal component analysis replaces correlated measurements by orthogonal linear coordinates ordered by their variance. For centered observations collected in an $n\times p$ matrix $Z$, write the sample covariance matrix as $S=Z^{T}Z/(n-1)$. A unit loading vector $a$ gives score vector $Za$ with sample variance $a^{T}Sa$. The Rayleigh quotient is maximized by a unit eigenvector of $S$ for its largest eigenvalue.

The subsequent principal components maximize the same quadratic form subject to orthogonality to the earlier loading vectors. By the spectral theorem, if $S=Q\Lambda Q^T$ with descending eigenvalues, the scores $ZQ$ have diagonal covariance $\Lambda$. Their fractions of explained variance are ${\lambda }_j/{\sum }_i{\lambda }_i$. Repeated eigenvalues identify an eigenspace rather than a unique axis.

Keeping the first $q$ principal components gives the rank-$q$ reconstruction $\hat{Z}=Z{Q}_q{Q}_q^T$. Its squared reconstruction error isFor any rank-$q$ orthogonal projection $P$, retained variance is $\mathrm{tr}(SP)={\sum }_j{\lambda }_j{q}_j^{T}P{q}_j$. The weights $q_j^{T}P{q}_j$ lie in $[0,1]$ and sum to $q$, so this is at most the sum of the largest $q$ eigenvalues. Projecting onto any candidate reconstruction subspace is its best least-squares reconstruction; this proves the minimum-error property and agrees with the singular value decomposition. Thus PCA finds the linear subspace preserving the greatest variance, equivalently minimizing squared reconstruction error. The upper-left sketch shows the first axis aligned with the elongated cloud; the second is perpendicular. A scree plot and substantive interpretability help choose $q$.

These methods depend on measurement scale. A variable measured in large numerical units can dominate covariance-based principal component analysis; standardizing variables gives principal component analysis on a correlation matrix. Scores summarize patterns, but the method neither establishes causation nor guarantees that the largest-variance directions best predict a separate response.